Saturday Bets! 2025 Northerly Stakes

The final G1 of 2025 takes place this Saturday over in the West with the 50th edition of the Northerly Stakes raced over 1800m under WFA conditions for $1.5 million in prizemoney.

First raced in 1976, the Northerly has jumped around in distances – from 1600m in 1999 to 2000m in 2003, however, predominantly, it has remained at 1800m. Only 3 years after its inception, it was granted G1 status and in 2022, it was renamed to commemorate one of WA’s most famous horses. In its 49 years, it has generated an amazing winners list including KINGSTON TOWN (1982), BETTER LOOSEN UP (1989), SNIPER’S BULLET (2009) and AMELIA’S JEWEL (2022).

NIC ASHMAN SPEED MAP

"Surely they roll forward on COSMIC CRUSADER and either lead or sit outside lead? He's got more natural speed than SENTIMENTAL HERO but one of those two should lead with GINGER BAKER not far away. KING OF LIGHT/WESTERN EMPIRE get great runs."

Trainer/Jockey Chat

Western Australia’s own Austin Galatai is the in-form Jockey heading into the Northernly with the 25-year-old in career best form. In his last 100 rides, Galatai is surpassing market expectations by 44% and is 31% above his career strike rate. He’ll be looking to secure the biggest win of his career aboard HEMLOCK STONE, who opened at $101 and would be the longest-priced winner ever of the Northerly.

Annabel and Rob Archibald can’t do much wrong at the moment after training 5YO LIBERTAD to victory in the G1 Winterbottom last weekend. This Saturday, they will take DEPTH OF CHARACTER to the Northerly and although he will be backing up after a disappointing Railway Stakes two weeks ago, the Archibalds are exceeding market expectations by 23% in their last 100 runners. With DEPTH OF CHARACTER jumping from a favourable inside gate, $26 may be overs.

BALLARAT QUADDIE ANALYSIS

Here are the historical stats and trends to help you land the winner of the 2025 edition:

• Since 1995, a total of 10 Favourites have won the Northerly representing 33% of all winners. However, only two Favourites have been successful in the past 9 years with the most recent being AMELIA’S JEWEL in 2022.

• But the Favourites have paid up long term - if the average punter had placed a $100 bet on the Favourite every year for the past 30 years, the accumulated return would currently show a profit of $312.

  
  

• But value pays when Favourites don’t win – the last 7 Northerly winners who were not Favourites all jumped at double-digit odds with SPs ranging from $10 through to $21.

  
  

• The last 3 Favourites to win the Northerly were 3YOs – the last Favourite that was not 3YO to win the Northerly was 7YO MORIARTY back in 2014.

  
  

• Inside gates have consistently proven advantageous, with 13 winners since 1995 (43%) jumping from Barriers 1 – 4 – and this pattern has continued more recently, as 7 of the last 15 winners also jumped from Barriers 1 – 4.

  
  

• A striking barrier trend has emerged, with 7 of the past 9 Northerly winners launching from either Barrier 1 [ZIPAWAY] or Barrier 8 [KING OF LIGHT].

  
  

• Settling in the midfield is a recipe for success – 8 of the last 10 winners who won on a Good track found themselves between 5th and 7th at the 800m.

  
  

• Only 3 Mares have won in the past 40 years – the last being ST CLEMENS BELLE in 1999.

  
  

• But the Fillies have dominated in recent times, producing 4 winners in the past decade, including AMELIA’S JEWEL in 2022.

  
  

• Each of the last 8 Northerly winners had their previous race start at Ascot – the last horse to win the Northerly without having raced in Western Australia at its prior start was STRATUM STAR in 2016.

  
  

• Of the last 13 Northerly Stakes winners, 9 placed at their most recent start before winning the race.

  
  

• Over the past 30 years, no winner of the Northerly has carried Saddlecloth 6 [DIAMOND SCENE] or 9 [GINGER BAKER] to victory.

Get Nic Ashman's insights into this weekend's racing in Perth and across the country via the latest episode of our Saturday Bets! podcast below.

To maximise your chances based on historical data, look for a runner who is:

• Is Favourite – only if they are a 3YO

• Inside gate – or at least successful Barrier 1 or 8

• Placed in their last start at Ascot

Andy’s Tip: 15 KING OF LIGHT $2.15

“With the last 3 Favourites to win being 3YOs, KING OF LIGHT looks set to continue this trend for the final G1 of 2025. Fitting the historical profile perfectly with 3/3 wins at Ascot this prep, a likely settling position in midfield and perhaps most ominously – jumping from Barrier 8 – the historic pattern sets up well for the Favourite who only carriers 52kg and has the best driver in the West onboard.”

Nic Ashman's Tip: 11. COSMIC CRUSADER $6

"Probably goes close in the Railway had he got a run judging by his ratings in a different race that same day. We think the track will suit on pacers and we've mapped him to settle in front of his main dangers." If you want the latest Track Reports and key intel ahead of raceday then check out our product suite and see what our members get.