Saturday Bets! 2025 Railway Stakes

The first G1 of the Perth Carnival highlights a bumper weekend in the wild west with the 140th running of the Railway Stakes raced over 1600m under Handicap conditions.

The Railway Stakes was first raced on New Year’s Day in 1887 as a support race to the Perth Cup. Over time, the race grew in stature and went from a Principal to a Group 1 in 1979. Throughout its time, the race has produced some famous winners, including AQUANITA (1959) and BETTER LOOSEN UP (1989), however, its most renowned winner is the great NORTHERLY, who won in 2000 before heading to Moonee Valley the following Spring to win the Cox Plate in 2001.

NIC ASHMAN SPEED MAP

"Very difficult to nail this one but COMFORT ME loves to lead and the horse with the best early speed data is DEPTH OF CHARACTER. He could park OSL and be very comfortable there. Be aware I've included the emergency horses so at lest 4 of these will come out. WATCH ME ROCK should get a gun-run no matter what.

Trainer/Jockey Chat

DEPTH OF CHARACTER is a horse to keep your eye on. Why? Well the 4YO Gelding has the in-form Jockey on board and the in-form Trainers training it.

DEPTH OF CHARACTER’s Jockey Reece Jones is surpassing market expectations by 47% in his last 100 rides and is above his career strike rate by 48%. Its Trainers Annabel and Rob Archibald are also on fire at the moment, exceeding market expectations by 42% in their last 100 runners, which is 37% above their career strike rate. DEPTH OF CHARACTER has opened at $12.

CRANBOURNE QUADDIE ANALYSIS

Here are the historical stats and trends to help you land the winner of the 2025 edition:

• Favourites carry a solid record heading into the Railway – 9 of the last 30 winners (30%) have been Favourites. In the last 5 years, Favourites have secured 3 victories.

• While their record may be fair, Favourites have not generated a consistently strong return – our average punter making a bet on the Favourite each year since 1995 would have made $2402 – a loss of $598.

  
  

• The real money seems to be made when the Favourites do not win – 7 of the last 9 winners that were not Favourites had SPs ranging from $9 to $31.

  
  

• In terms of barrier position, inside gates have generally not been the best place to generate victory – only 7 winners have jumped from Barriers 1-4 (23%) in the past 30 years. Having said that, 2 of the last 4 winners did jump from Barrier 2 and 3.

  
  

• The most successful gate positions have been in the middle with 13 winners since 1995 (43%) jumping from Barriers 5-9 including 3 of the last 5. Moreover, winners have also found success in outside gates with 10 winners in the same period (33%) jumping from Barriers 10-13.

  
  

• Remarkably, we have had a wide variety of settling positions for the winners of the Railway over the past decade:

  
  

  • 2015, 2016, 2017 – the winners were 1st at the 800m

  • 2018, 2019, 2020 – the winners were 12th at the 800m

  • 2021, 2022, 2023 – the winners were 5th, 6thh or 7th at the 800m.

  • 2024 winner PORT LOCKROY was 3rd at the 800m.

• The lighter contenders have dominated – 11 of the last 15 winners (73%) have carried 53kg or less to victory – including the last 7 winners. There is only one contender before emergencies that is carrying 53kg or less in this year’s edition – STORRYVILLE.

  
  

• Only 4 winners in the past 20 years have carried 54kg or more to victory in the Railway – the last being LUCKYGRAY in 2013.

  
  

• Mares’ record in the Railway is not pretty – only 5 Mares have won the Railway in the past 30 years (17%) – the last INSPIRATIONAL GIRL in 2020.

  
  

• Historically, youth trumps experience – 22 of the last 30 winners (73%) have been aged 4YO or 5YO – including the last 6 winners.

  
  

• In fact, 4YOs have dominated the Railway winning 29 of the last 66 editions (44%) – and won 52 of the previous 139 editions (37%).

  
  

• Traditionally, Railway winners have come through the Asian Beau Stakes or the Lee Steere Stakes – 10 of the last 14 winners (71%) used the Asian Beau or Lee Steere as a lead-up to the Railway.

  
  

• Furthermore, from those 10 winners that came out of the Asian Beau or Lee Steere, 7 winners placed in one of those lead-up races.

  
  

• Grant Williams and William Pike are looking to win their 6th Railway Stakes in 12 years together with WATCH ME ROCK.

  
  

• Back this week is the unlucky number – Saddlecloth 9 has not won in the past 30 years.

Get Nic Ashman's insights into this weekend's racing in Perth and across the country via the latest episode of our Saturday Bets! podcast below.

To maximise your chances based on historical data, look for a runner who is:

• Is a value - $9 or more

• Away from the inside gates

• A young contender who will carry a lightweight

Andy’s Tip: 16. STORYVILLE $18

The historical stat that really sticks out is the amazing success of lightweights in the Railway – so I lean towards STORYVILLE carrying the least amount of weight in the field at 53kg. Not only does she have that going for her, she jumps from a gate (13) that has won the Railway as recent as 2019 – and a barrier she won from the in R.J Peters last week. She is a 4YO who is 2/2 at the Track/Distance. I’m backing her to be the first Mare to win since 2020.  

Nic Ashman's Tip: No. 12 WATCH ME ROCK $3.90

"Winner of 10 from 18 and his ratings are still on an upward spiral with his peak rating coming just 3 starts ago. Gets a lovely map here and should be very hard to beat. DEPTH OF CHARACTER can sit on pace and give a sight. Two-bet stratgey and perhaps a sneaky Quinella." If you want the latest Track Reports and key intel ahead of raceday then check out our product suite and see what our members get.