Saturday Bets! 2025 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes

The second of the G1s at Caulfield this Saturday is the intriguing Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes run over 1400m under Handicap conditions with a prize pool of $1 million.

Since its inception in 1951, the formerly known Invitation Stakes has been a constant on the Caulfield calendar for the past 74 years. The Sir Rupert has been a natural lead-up to many races in the Spring Carnival, but in particular the Toorak Handicap with TRUST IN A GUST being the last Sir Rupert/Toorak double winner back in 2014.

The stage is set for the 75th running of the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes. SEPAL opened as Favourite, but has now been replaced by ANGEL CAPITAL who is looking for 3 wins in a row.

Trainer/Jockey Chat

Damian Lane is performing well recently exceeding market expectations by 18% in his last 100 rides which is good for ANGEL CAPITAL, but keep an eye on Billy Egan on FEROCE. Egan is well above market expectations by 41% in his last 100 rides and 43% above his career strike rate. With FEROCE at $34 and Egan on board, it may be worth a speck.

The Leading Trainer in the race is Cliff Brown who will take SEPALS to the Sir Rupert. Brown is surpassing market expectations by 81% in his last 100 runners which may seal the deal for punters in backing SEPALS. Another Trainer worth noting is the Price & Kent Jnr partnership up 27% from market expectations in their last 100 runners. They are taking MISS ROUMBINI to the Sir Rupert.

Here are the historical stats and trends to help you land the winner of the 2025 edition:

• The Favourites have a 36% winning record in the Sir Rupert with 9 wins since 1995. They have enjoyed good success in recent years with 3 wins from the last 6 editions.

  
  

• While the Favourites of the Underwood historically have not paid up over 30 years, the Sir Rupert Favourites have. A $100 stake on the Favourite of the Sir Rupert since 1995 would see the average punter up an impressive $690.

  
  

• But if the Favourites don’t win, the outsiders are cashing in. The last 5 winners who were not Favourites all won at double-digit odds ranging from $11 to $26.

  
  

• Fascinatingly, 14 winners in the past 30 years (47%) have jumped from Barriers 10 to 18. This trend of obtaining success from wide barriers has continued in recent years with 3 of the last 4 winners jumping from Barriers 10 to 13.

  
  

• There has only been one winner in the past 17 years that has jumped from an inside gate – BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER [2019] from Barrier 3. All other winners have jumped from Barrier 5 or wider.

  
  

• The success of wide barriers positions is consolidated in the settling positions of the winners with 7 Sir Rupert champions in the last decade finding themselves between 8th and 11th at the 800m mark.

  
  

• Only 5 horses have managed to carry 57kg or more to victory in the past 30 years. However, 3 of those wins have occurred in the last 7 years.

  
  

• But it seems lighter the better – 7 of the last 11 winners have carried 53.5kg or less to victory.

  
  

• The 4YOs have a fantastic record in the Sir Rupert winning 9 times in the last 15 years – including the last two Sir Ruperts.

  
  

• After their last win in 2010, the Mares had to wait over a decade for their next win – but they have now capitalised winning 3 of the last 4 races.

  
  

• With the Sir Rupert changing slots in the calendar multiple times in years gone by, it is hard to pinpoint a consistent lead-up race, however, 3 of the last 6 winners came through the Memsie.

  
  

• 5 of the last 7 winners that raced before the Sir Rupert failed to place in their last start.

  
  

• Unlucky Saddlecloths for the Sir Rupert – 2 [HERE TO SHOCK] and 10 [DAMASK ROSE] - these numbers have not won in the past 30 years.

To hear Nic's tip for the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes plus an insight into this weekend's racing, click on the latest episode of The Beaten Favourite below.

To maximise your chances based on historical data, look for a runner who is:

• Is jumping well away from the fence

• A 4YO

• If not the Favourite, then a contender of value

Andy’s Tip: 9. ANGEL CAPITAL $5

The historical stats align well for the 4YO Favourite who will carry 53.5kg and will jump from Barrier 13 (the last two winners jumped from Barrier 13). 2 from 2 over the Distance at Caulfield and Damian Lane on board – going to be hard to beat. If he gets done though, then maybe MISS ROUMBINI with 52kg from Barrier 14 at $13s can get it done for the Girls.

Nic Ashman's Tip: 14. CHORLTON LANE $41

"ANGEL CAPITAL best ratings and now that he's an older horse potentially could handle a fast run 1400m race. But he's yet to officially tick that box and seems a bit short at $3.60. SEPALS has ticked that box but map stinks. CHORLTON LANE isn't the glamour horse of the field but his figures at 1400m are about 2L off the better peaks in this race. He meets SEPALS much better at the weights for recent defeat when taken back from wide gate."

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