Saturday Bets! 2025 South Australian Derby

With the last 7 South Australian Derby winners all emerging from Barriers 7 to 10 – will the middle gates prove to be the right place for victory again? Or will the pattern be overturned?

SOUTH AUSTRALIAN DERBY

2500m – Group 1 – 3YO Set Weights

This Saturday will see G1 action return to Morphettville with the running of the South Australian Derby conducted over 2500m for the 3YOs under Set Weight conditions with the boys carrying 56.5kg and the girls 54.5kg.

Although commencing in 1860, the SA Derby is only up for its 152nd edition after it was not held between 1869-75, 1885-89, 1942-43 and 1983. Nevertheless, the SA Derby has produced some famous winners in its time including SUBZERO (1992), MUMMIFY (2003), GATUM GATUM (1961) and AURARIA (1895).

Bart Cummings has a commanding lead in terms of Leading Trainer with 10 wins in the SA Derby. Darren Weir recently enjoyed success with a hat-trick of wins between 2016 and 2018. Leading Jockey is Mick Medhurst with 6 victories, however John Allen has moved up the ranks quickly with 4 wins in the last 9 years.

How do Favourites fare in this race?

‘Stay at the top of the market…’

Since 1995, Favourites have enjoyed notable success in the SA Derby with 12 managing to secure victory including an impressive streak of 5 consecutive wins from 2006 to 2010. More recently, Favourites have won 3 times in the past 7 years, although the most recent was in 2021 with EXPLOSIVE JACK.

The overall trend suggests that winners are typically well-supported in the betting market. In fact, 9 of the last 11 winners have started at odds of $8 or shorter underscoring the notion that punters usually have the market correct in backing short-priced contenders. Over the past two decades, 13 winners have returned SPs of $5 or less reinforcing this concept. Conversely, only 5 winners in that time have started at double-digit odds indicating that major upsets are relatively rare in this race.

What Barriers are most successful?

‘Sweet spot – middle…’

Middle gates have dominated in terms of success over the past 30 years with Barriers 5 to 10 emerging as a particularly favourable launching point. Since 1995, 14 winners have jumped from Barriers 5 to 10 highlighting a consistent advantage offered by these central positions. This pattern has remained strong in more recent years with 9 winners since 2010 also starting from within that range. Notably, the trend has intensified even further in the latest editions of the SA Derby – each of the last 7 winners have emerged from middle gates, specifically between Barriers 7 and 10 suggesting a clear historical advantage.

To hear Nic's tip for the South Australian Derby plus an insight into this weekend's racing, click on the latest episode of The Beaten Favourite below.

Does it matter where my horse settles?

‘Want to run on…’

No leaders at the 800m have gone on to win the SA Derby with the last 10 winners settling anywhere between 3rd and 14th. The last 3 SA Derbies have been run on a G4 with 2 of those winners coming from the back of the field.

What kind of Lead-Up form should I look for?

‘Usually the Chairman’s is a guide…’

The Chairman’s Stakes has emerged as the most common lead-up race to the SA Derby in recent years with 5 of the last 11 winners having contested it in their final start before the Derby. Among those, 3 horses – HOWARD BE THY NAME (2016), LEICESTER (2018) and JUNGLE MAGNATE (2022) have successfully completed the coveted Chairman’s Stakes/SA Derby double. However, when viewed from a broader historical perspective, the race has produced mixed results. Despite its prominence, only 6 Chairman’s Stakes winners have gone on to win the SA Derby from 38 attempts – so you don’t need to win the Chairman’s to win the SA Derby.

The other race worth noting as a lead-up is the Australasian Oaks with both QAFILA in 2019 and COCO SUN in 2024 racing in the Oaks before the SA Derby.

Recent form has proven to be a strong indicator of success in the SA Derby with 7 of the last 10 winners having placed in their final lead-up run. Impressively, 6 of those 7 went into the Derby off the back of a last-start victory highlighting the importance of momentum heading into the race.

Fillies have a respectable strike rate in the SA Derby winning at approximately 17% with 25 victories from 151 starts overall. However, their success in more recent history has been more limited. Since 1984, only 6 Fillies have triumphed from 41 contenders. That said, there have been notable exceptions in recent years with COCO SUN claiming victory in 2024 and QAFILA breaking through in 2019.

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Andy’s Rundown for the South Australian Derby:

A bit tricky considering our short-priced contenders are not in the favourable middle gates – so which way does a punter lean?

Only 3 horses sit below the $8 or less line with LAVALIER coming out of Chairman’s with an impressive second place, but seems to be the bridesmaid this prep so the Favourite STATUARIO comes into calculations with a strong 2400m win at Caulfield last start and with John Allen still on his back – he has the perfect set up.

If the middle gates tickle your fancy, then the odds will certainly reward the punters with all runners in middle gates in the double-digit odds range. SAINT EMILION finished off well in 4th in the Chairman’s so the extra 100m of the SA Derby may be highly beneficial. SNOOPY NOW finished further back in the Chairman’s in 6th, however, two starts back he won the Port Adelaide Guineas which is a common lead-up to the Chairman’s and used by SA Derby winners over the years – a form line worth noting.