Saturday Bets! 2025 The Everest
- Nic Ashman
- Oct 15
- 3 min read
Updated: Oct 16
The world's richest race on turf is run this weekend at Randwick with the $20million The Everest.
KA YING RISING will go off a hot favourite despite a lacklustre trial at Randwick last week. If successful, he will be the 4th favourite to take out the G1 feature in 9 years.
2025 THE EVEREST
market supplied by PointsBet
NIC ASHMAN'S SPEED MAP
"KA YING RISING has the toe to lead but OVERPASS won't want to be wide no cover so he is likely to push on and cross at all costs. He might find the fence or sit outside MAZU pending how fast the latter wants to go. Zac Purton can get that lovely trail in behind a hot pace with 2-3L to the nearest horse behind him. KA YING RISING has the highest natural speed in the race, which means if the tempo is FAST then JOLIESTAR has to travel outside her comfortzone to hold his back."
Here are the historical stats and trends since 2017 to help you land the winner of the 2025 edition:
MARKET
Favourites — 3 winners - Classique Legend (2020), Nature Strip (2021), Think About It (2023).
A $100 win bet on every favourite since 2017 would see you up +$430
Single-digit odds ($6–$10) — 4 winners Redzel (2017, 2018), Yes Yes Yes (2019), Bella Nipotina (2024)
Double-figure odds ($11+) — 1 winner Giga Kick (2022)
LEAD-UP RACE
The 8 winners of the Everest so far have come through 5 different lead-up races suggesting there is no real pattern at the moment. Here the winning lead-ups;
The Shorts — 3 winners Redzel (2017), Classique Legend (2020), Nature Strip (2021)
Premiere Stakes — 2 winners Think About It (2023), Bella Nipotina (2024)
Concorde Stakes — 1 winners Redzel (2018)
Golden Rose — 1 winner Yes Yes Yes (2019)
Danehill Stakes — 1 winner Giga Kick (2022)
LAST START PLACING
You want a horse in form with all bar one Everest winner not finishing in the Top 3 at their previous run.
3 of the last 8 winners won their previous start.
4 winners came off a placing (2nd or 3rd), including Classique Legend (2nd Premiere Stk) and Nature Strip (2nd The Shorts).
Only one winner has finished worse than 3rd in their lead-up run — Redzel (5th in 2018).
AGE PROFILE
5YOs have won the most but 3YOs make up just over 10% of overall entries yet have won 25% of the time. Meanwhile, a 4YO is yet to win an Everest.
3YO — 2 winners Yes Yes Yes, Giga Kick
5YO — 3 winners Redzel, Classique Legend, Think About It
6YO — 1 winner Redzel
7YO — 2 winners Nature Strip, Bella Nipotina
BARRIERS
Inside gates are an advantage with half The Everest winners so far jumping from gate 5 or closer.
1–5 (Low) — 4 winners Redzel (2017, 2018), Giga Kick (2022)
6–9 (Middle) — 2 winners Classique Legend (2020), Yes Yes Yes (2019)
10+ (Wide) — 2 winners Nature Strip (2021), Bella Nipotina (2024)
TRAINERS
P. & P. Snowden — 2 wins Redzel (2017, 2018)
C. Waller — 2 wins Yes Yes Yes (2019), Nature Strip (2021)
C. Maher — 1 win Bella Nipotina (2024)
Others — 3 wins Classique Legend, Giga Kick, Think About It
JOCKEYS
Kerrin McEvoy — 3 wins Redzel (2017, 2018), Classique Legend (2020)
Craig Williams — 2 wins Giga Kick (2022), Bella Nipotina (2024)
James McDonald — 1 win Nature Strip (2021)
Sam Clipperton — 1 win Think About It (2023)
Glen Boss — 1 win Yes Yes Yes (2019)
The big guns in Waller, Snowden and now Maher dominated the training ranks while K Mac and Willow hold court for the hoops.
WHO TICKS THE BOXES?
Early trends for what is a relatively new race suggest you want a horse that has placed at its lead-up run, is less than $10 and is 5YO or 3YO preferably trained by Waller, Maher and ridden by K McEvoy or C Williams.
JOLIESTAR ticks a lot of boxes while KA YING RISING in right there. If you fancy a roughie then WAR MACHINE ticks almost as many.
Meanwhile, our TBF database and resident form guru, Nic Ashman, have provided their tips.
TBF DATA SELECTION
No.5 WAR MACHINE
NIC ASHMAN'S TIP
No.12 TEMPTED
"Outstanding victory in fast time in the Run To The Rose. Travelled into race but found 1400m too much in Golden Rose. Back to 1200m suits, is 2 from 2 course and distance."
Good luck and Happy Punting!
NIC ASHMAN'S FEATURE RACE TIPS and TRACKWALKER INFO via the Podcast below
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