Saturday Bets! 2025 Caulfield Cup

The Caulfield Cup is regarded as one of the toughest mile-and-a-half races in the world with three turns and no margin for error, only the tough survive.

The Turnbull Stakes is by far the best guide with international runners winning as many times since 1991 as any formline outside of the Turnbull.

WITHOUT A FIGHT in 2023 is the most recent horse to complete the coveted Cups double.

2025 CAULFIELD CUP market supplied by Pointsbet

SPEED MAP

"There's a lot of potential outcomes here but we think BANKERS CHOICE is the most likely leader with Japanese raider GOLDEN SNAP likely to be handy as she has no turn of foot and needs to run well to get into the Melbourne Cup"

Here are the historical stats and trends since 1991 to help you land the winner of the 2025 edition:

ODDS

• Favourites won11 of 34 (32%) since 1991

• $100 on each favourite: $3,400 outlay → $5,540 return = +$2,140 profit (+63%)
  

LEAD-UP RACE

• Turnbull Stakes — 14 winners Duke De Sessa, Incentivise, Verry Elleegant, Northerly

• Caulfield Stakes — 6 winners Mannerism, Ethereal, Mongolian Khan

• The Metropolitan — 3 winners Railings, Tawqeet, Durston

• Herbert Power — 3 winners Fraar, Master O’Reilly, Boom Time

• Epsom Handicap — 1 winner Might And Power

• International preps — 6 winners Admire Rakti, Mer De Glace, Best Solution, Dunaden, All The Good, Taufan’s Melody

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LAST-START FINISHING POSITION

• Won last start: 13 winners

• Placed (2nd–3rd): 8 winners

• Unplaced (4th or worse): 13 winners

Don’t panic if your Cup fancy didn’t win last start — 38% of winners were unplaced in their lead-up.

BARRIERS

• Most wins: Barriers 7 and 9 (4 wins each)

• Least wins: 1, 12, 14, 16, 19, 20 (no wins since 1991)

• Grouped results:

  • 1–6 → 12 wins

  • 7–12 → 13 wins

  • 13–20 → 9 wins

Barriers have little impact, its more tha shape of the race combined with starting gate that can determine the outcome.

SADDLECLOTH NUMBERS

• Most successful: Numbers 1 and 9 (5 wins each)

• Saddlecloths 6–10 have nabbed 14 wins since '91.

  
  

AGE PROFILE

4YOs dominate — they’re fresh, on the rise, and historically the strongest age bracket.

5YOs are next following closely by 6YOs. Less than 5 winners since 1991 have come from outside these 3 ages.

SEX (Gender)

Type	Wins
Geldings (G)	16
Entires (H)	11
Mares (M)	6

MOST COMMON AGE/SEX COMBO

• 🥇 4YO Gelding (4G) — 6 wins

• 🥈 4YO Mare (4M) — 5 wins

TRAINERS

Trainer	Wins	Notable Horses
D.L. Freedman	4	Mannerism, Paris Lane, Doriemus, Mummify
C. Maher	2	Jameka, Duke De Sessa
J.B. Cummings	2	Let’s Elope, Viewed
Saeed bin Suroor	2	All The Good, Best Solution
Others (1 each)	24	—

JOCKEYS

Jockey	Wins	Horses
Damien Oliver	4	Mannerism, Paris Lane, Doriemus, Sky Heights
Craig Williams	2	Southern Speed, Dunaden
Mark Zahra	2	Verry Elleegant, Without A Fight
Others (1 each)	26	—

SATURDAY BETS! 2025 THE EVEREST

2025 CAULFIELD CUP

What you’re looking for:

• 4YO, 5YO or 6YO gelding

• Coming off the Turnbull Stakes

• Drawn 7–12

• Trained by Maher a bonus. Wary of Waller too.

• Favourites OK

• Last-start win or placing not essential (Turnbull 4th–6th fine)

2025 CAULFIELD CUP PICK BASED ON HISTORY

HALF YOURS

MIDDLE EARTH

Meanwhile, our TBF database and resident form guru Nic Ashman have provided their tips.

TBF DATA SELECTION NO.15 HALF YOURS

NIC ASHMAN'S TIP

NO.15 HALF YOURS

Good luck and Happy Punting!

NIC ASHMAN'S DETAILED FEATURE RACE TIPS via PODCAST BELOW

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