Saturday Bets! 2025 The Goodwood

With Favourites winning The Goodwood 5 times since 2000, are punters brave enough to ignore the hype of the returning GIGA KICK and back a contender with value? Or will they fall for the Favourite trap again?

THE BACK STORY

The premier sprint race of the Adelaide Autumn Racing Carnival is the G1 The Goodwood – a 1200m race under Set Weights for open class horses. Throughout its 144-year history, the status of the race has been targeted and won by famous winners notably BLACK CAVIAR (2012), TAKEOVER TARGET (2009) and SANTA ANA LANE (2018). Ben Melham is looking to move into equal second on the winners list for Winning Jockeys with a win on CHARM STONE.

TRACKWALKER INFO

The Beaten Favourite is home of your Trackwalker Info and here is the predicted track pattern for Morphettville this Saturday;

"Inside lanes OK but there's a slight advantage to being about 3 horses off the rail in the straight.

Lanes 3 to 7 likely to provide the bulk of your winners. No issue with the ground wider, just a matter of getting there.

Typically when we see the middle lanes in play, it is advantageous to be within 4L of the lead"

WHAT PUNTERS CAN’T IGNORE

When approaching the Goodwood, punters should prioritise value over favouritism as history shows that Favourites have a dismal record. With only 5 Favourites winning in the past 25 years - and just 11 in the last 70 years - the strike rate sits at a mere 16% with the last Favourite to win being BLACK HEART BART in 2016. Instead, focus on horses with SPs in the mid-range – 6 of the last 7 winners had SPs between $10 and $26 and 14 of the last 20 winners started at $7 or more. This race consistently rewards punters who are willing to look beyond the top of the market.

In terms of profiling winners, targeting 4YOs and 5YOs offers the strongest statistical edge with 15 of the last 20 winners falling into this age bracket including 9 of the last 10. Additionally, Geldings have proven highly successful with 9 of the past 11 winners fitting that profile. That said, punters should not entirely discount female runners as the last 2 winners were a Filly and a Mare signalling that well-placed girls can buck the trend.

WHAT PUNTERS SHOULD CONSIDER

There are several other considerations punters should be aware of when looking at the Goodwood – notably, all of the last 7 winners have placed in their previous start indicating strong recent form is a reliable guide. While various lead-up races have produced winners over time, the John Hawkes Stakes has emerged as a noted form reference in recent years used by 3 of the past 7 winners – all of whom placed in that race, with two victorious.

Weight is another factor to consider – 14 of the past 25 winners carried between 54kg and 56.5kg with only 5 winning with less than 54kg in the same period. Barrier draw is not as crucial compared to other tracks due to the dog-leg start at Morphettville – however, 6 of the last 9 winners, including 3 of the last 5, have jumped from Barriers 2 to 6.

To hear Nic's tip for The Goodwood plus an insight into this weekend's racing, click on the latest episode of The Beaten Favourite below.

AND MAYBE PUNTERS SHOULD PONDER THIS

Since 2000, only 4 winners of the Goodwood have NOT been trained in Victoria – the last SAVATOXL in 2019.

Finally, 5 Goodwoods in the last decade have been run on a G4 – and in 4 of those 5 Goodwoods – the winner was in the top 3 when coming around the turn. Those 4 winners all carried between 55.5kg to 56.5kg.

ANDY’S KEY FILTERS FOR THE GOODWOOD

• Look for horses aged 4YO or 5YO

• Be wary of Favourites

• Target SPs $10 and over for value

• Favor Gelding runners

• Look for contenders who placed last start

ANDY’S TIP:

4. WATCHME WIN

4YO; Gelding; SP $20; Won John Hawkes last start; 4UP; Barrier 2; 56kg

A good result for Works Burger subs on Wednesday with Nic's $12 tip DRIFT NET winning. Wednesday's Bet Sheet below. To get our Current Bet Sheets grab your Free Trial of the Works Burger.

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