Saturday Bets! 2025 Winterbottom Stakes
- Andrew Gulczynski
- Nov 26
- 4 min read
The Summer Perth Carnival rolls on this Saturday at Ascot with the 74th running of the G1 Winterbottom Stakes raced over 1200m under WFA conditions worth $1.5 million in prizemoney.
Long considered WA’s premier sprint race, the Winterbottom was originally run on Railway Stakes Day. However, it was moved back a week to become the highlight of the second Saturday of the Perth Carnival. In 2011, it was awarded G1 status and as a result, has since attracted elite sprinters. This is evident from its notable list of winners which includes: PLACID ARK (1987), MISS ANDRETTI (2005), TAKEOVER TARGET (2008), BUFFERING (2013/15), and OVERPASS (2023/24).
NIC ASHMAN SPEED MAP
"OVERPASS crosses LIBERTAD to lead with OSCAR'S FORTUNE sitting to his outside. They'll try and slow it down mid-race to diminish JOKERS GRIN's chances. But I expect the fav to stay one off the rail unless REY MAGNERIO sits on his outside and forces down onto the rail, which is a possibility."
Trainer/Jockey Chat
Bjorn Baker aims to make history this Saturday with his horse OVERPASS, striving to become the first triple winner of the Winterbottom. A victory would see Baker match the record for Leading Trainer of the Winterbottom, and his current form suggests he's in with a strong chance. Baker is beating market expectations by 18% with his last 100 runners and is 14% above his career strike rate.
The most in-form Trainers are Annabel and Rob Archibald, who are exceeding market expectations by 29% with their last 100 runners. They take LIBERTAD to the Winterbottom. Regarding Jockeys, Willy Pike is aiming to become the Joint-Leading Jockey of the Winterbottom – a win on REY MAGNERIO will secure his fourth Winterbottom victory.
Here are the historical stats and trends to help you land the winner of the 2025 edition:
Favourites have historically done very well in the Winterbottom producing 11 winners since 1995 (37%). OVERPASS has won the last two Winterbottoms as Favourite, however, he did stop a lean spell for the Favourites with the previous Favourite to win being BUFFERING in 2015.
While the Favourites do have a good record, generating long-term profit is a bit of a different story – if the average punter had placed a $100 stake on the Favourites each year for the past 30 years – they would be down $20.
So if you want to make some money – look for value. 9 of the last 12 winners who were not Favourite had a SP ranging from $9 to $41. Of those 9 winners, 6 had a SP of $13 or more.
Remarkably, wide gates have dominated in terms of Winterbottom winners. 11 winners since 1995 (37%) have jumped from Barrier 10 or wider but perhaps even more astonishing – the last 7 winners in a row have jumped from Barriers 10 – 16.
5 of the last 10 winners have found themselves in the top two at the 400m on their way to a Winterbottom victory. But, coming from the back is not uncommon – 3 winners in the past decade have been last at the 400m before steaming home to take out the Winterbottom – the last PAULELE in 2022.
The Mares have a very handy record in the Winterbottom with 18 wins in 73 years. (25%). More recently, there have been 5 Mares to win in the past 16 years – the last being GRACEFUL GIRL in 2021. There is only one Mare in this year’s edition – BENEDETTA.
There is also only one 3YO in the Winterbottom this year – LUANA MISS is looking to become the first 3YO to win since HARDRADA in 2002 and the first Filly to win since BELINDA STAR in 1975.
The 4YOs and 5YOs have dominated the Winterbottom traditionally winning 18 times since 1995 (60%). This trend has continued in recent years with the middle-aged contenders winning 6 times in the past decade and 4 times in the past 5 years.
With a wide range of top-quality sprinters from across the country aiming to win the final G1 sprint of 2025, the variety of lead-ups is easy to understand. The last 7 winners of the Winterbottom have all come from different last start races.
Hot in the West – the last 4 winners of the Winterbottom who raced in Perth their previous start all finished in the quinella of that race.
Cold in the East – 7 of the last 8 winners of the Winterbottom who raced interstate their previous start did not place in that race.
The ‘Unlucky Saddlecloth’ has proven to be very unlucky in 2025 – only two horses have broken the curse in the Saturday Bets! article – this week its Saddlecloth 8 – it has not won the Winterbottom in the past 30 years.
Get Nic Ashman's insights into this weekend's racing in Perth and across the country via the latest episode of our Saturday Bets! podcast below.
To maximise your chances based on historical data, look for a runner who is:
Is of value starting at $9 or more
Has a wide barrier – preferably double-digit
Placed last start in Perth or did not place last start interstate
Andy’s Tip: 11. LUANA MISS $10
Ok – this is a throw at the stumps with defending champion OVERPASS and deserved favourite JOKERS GRIN justifiably short in the market – however – LUANA MISS has a lot of upside in regards to historical stats. She has opened up at $10 and is due to jump from the widest barrier in 11 with her last two runs in Perth yielding two wins. Sure, she will need to be the first Filly to win in 50 years, but – she’s 4/6 at the Track, 1/1 over the Distance/Track and the kicker – she is carrying 7kg less than the Favourites. For the penultimate G1 of the year, let’s have a crack.
Nic Ashman's Tip: 2. JOKERS GRIN $2.50
"He doesn't have to be worse than midfield and his finishing sectionals are simply better than these. The only way I see him getting beaten is if he gets hemmed away three back the rail and doesn't get out in time."
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