Saturday Bets! 2026 Australian Guineas

A race between two? Or is an upset on the card? The spotlight shines on Flemington this Saturday with the 41st edition of the G1 Australian Guineas over 1600m under Set Weights.

Commencing in 1986, the Australian Guineas will offer $1 million in prizemoney in 2026 and provides the 3YOs an opportunity to target more G1 glory later in the Autumn – perhaps a tilt at the All-Star Mile or a run over 2400m in the ATC Derby on Championship Day 1. This is evident in previous Australian Guineas winners MYSTIC JOURNEY (2019) and FEROCE (2025), who contested the All-Star Mile, and HITOTSU (2022), who went on to win the ATC Derby 6 weeks later.

And let’s not forget the fairytale when LUNAR FOX stunned the racing world in 2021, becoming the biggest-priced G1 winner in Australian racing history at a staggering $301.

NIC ASHMAN SPEED MAP

"WEST OF SWINDON jumped poorly when resuming behind OBSERVER but last prep we saw him up on speed. Tat's where they'll go again assuming he jumps cleanly. VICTORIOUS SPIRIT usually races on pace albeit his raw gate speed is lacking. Still, if he doesn't push on then he probably gets stuck wide no cover as OBSERVER and ROMANTIC ENCOUNTER have more than enough gas to keep him there. I've got SIXTIES and PLANET RED at the tail. They can try their luck going forward but risk getting stuck without cover. This map heavily advantages OBSERVER."

Trainer/Jockey Chat

Ben Melham took out last Saturday's Blue Diamond Stakes and is beating market expectations by 30% recently. He rides the Waller second-stringer OFFICIATE.

In the training ranks its Simon Zahra that stands out exceeding market expectations by 16% from his last 100 runners. Whats mroe is when he teams up with Thomas Stickdale the duo are smashing the market by 49% - watch out for ONAVUITTON!

Here are the historical stats and trends to help you land the winner of the 2026 edition:

• OBSERVER and SIXTIES beware! Only 3 Favourites have won in the past 17 years – not the best strike rate.

  
  

• This has had a flow-on effect to the average punter who has searched for success in backing Favourites – for a $100 stake on the Favourite each year since 1996, would see the average Joe down $267 from his overall investment.

  
  

• Doesn’t mean you don’t have to look too far down the page however – 8 of the past 12 winners have had SPs of $8 or less.

  
  

• Also dominating are low draws – 5 of the past 6 winners jumped from Barriers 1–5. This trend has been enhanced in the past 30 years, with the same barrier slots compiling 16 winners.

  
  

• Midfield momentum matters. 7 of the past 9 winners have settled between 4th and 9th at the 800m mark before swooping leaders and running on to victory.

  
  

• Follow the CS Hayes form. 7 winners in the past 11 years have used the CS Hayes Stakes as their lead-up run – with 6 winners placing in that particular race.

  
  

• SIXTIES has never raced over a mile before – previously racing to 1400m. OBSERVER has raced once to 1600m (3rd 2025 Caulfield Guineas) and twice over 1600m. Can SIXTIES go to 1600m? Does OBSERVER need more than 1600m?

  
  

• OBSERVER has not raced on a rain-affected track to date.

• Let’s not forget about our superstitious punters – Saddlecloth 10 hasn’t produced a winner in the past 30 years.

Get Nic Ashman's insights into this weekend's racing in Melbourne and Sydney as well as across the country via the latest episode of our Saturday Bets! podcast below.

To maximise your chances based on historical data, look for a runner who:

• Is not the Favourite - but short in the market

• Jumping between Barrier 1-5

• Settled in midfield at the 800m

• CS Hayes form

Andy's Tip: 7. ROMANTIC ENCOUNTER $20

Nic Ashman's Tip: 1. OBSERVER

"The map heavily favours this guy. He sat on a FAST tempo first-up at 1400m and raced away for a high rating win. Pretty special from a horse that was coming off a 2500m G1 Derby win in the spring. He's proven over longer than this whereas SIXTIES hasn't won beyond 1400m."

More Tips inc METRO TRACK REPORTS

Also taking place this Saturday at Royal Randwick are two more G1s – the Surround Stakes and the Verry Elleegant Stakes. Below are some historical stats and trends to consider when trying to land a winner:

SURROUND STAKES

1400m – Group 1 – 3YO Fillies: Set Weights

• LADY SHENANDOAH (2025) was the first Favourite to win in the last 7 years. 11 Favourites have won in the last 31 years.

• 6 winners in the last 9 years had SPs of $8.50 or more.

• 11 of the last 14 winner have jumped from Barriers 1 – 5. Moreover, the last 5 winners have jumped from Barriers 1 – 3.

• In the last 17 years, 11 winners raced in the Light Fingers earlier in their prep. Of those winners, 8 placed in the Light Fingers.

• Of the last 6 Favourites who have won the Surround, 5 finished in the quinella of the Light Fingers.

• In the last 31 years, Saddlecloths 1, 2 or 3 have won 22 (71%) times.

VERRY ELLEEGANT STAKES

1600m – Group 1 – Weight For Age

• 11 winners (85%) in the past 13 years have been Favourites. Of those 11 winners, 10 had SPs ranging from $1.08 to $2.80.

• Favourites carry a 66% strike rate with 20 victories since 1996.

• In the last 14 years, 10 (71%) winners have jumped from Barriers 2 to 5. VIA SISTINA (2025) was the first winner to win outside of this range since 2020.

• Of the last 11 winners, 9 raced in the Apollo 1UP. 8 of those winners all placed in the Apollo with 5 winning the race. Historically, the Apollo has produced 24 winners of the Verry Elleegant in the last 31 years.

• 7 of the last 11 years winners have been Mares. 6 of those 7 winning Mares all used the Apollo as a lead-up.

• James McDonald has won 4 of the last 5 Verry Elleegants. All have been on Favourites.

If you want the latest Track Reports and key intel ahead of raceday then check out our product suite and see what our members get.