Saturday Bets! 2026 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes
- Andrew Gulczynski
- 12 minutes ago
- 3 min read
Flemington will host the first G1 of 2026 this Saturday with the sprinters making their way down the Straight for the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes over 1000m under WFA conditions.
Formerly named the Lightning Stakes, the race signals the return of the nation’s elite speedsters after their summer break. Retitled in 2013 to the Black Caviar Lightning after Australia’s sprinting queen, the race has been used as a launchpad to further Autumn G1 glory with contenders progressing to targets like the Newmarket or the TJ Smith. Winners include: CHAUTAUQUA (2016), LANKAN RUPEE (2015) and TAKEOVER TARGET (2006).
NIC ASHMAN SPEED MAP
"Expecting them to come away from the inside. They could be 3-abreast or BEIWACHT could take the sit in behind them potentially leaving MARHOONA exposed. GIGA KICK gets a lovely smother while TENTYRIS camps out the back and waits for the perfect time to unleash his devastating sprint."
Trainer/Jockey Chat
Trainer John McCardle has struck at 25% from his last 100 runners well above his lifetime rate of 12%. During this time he's also beaten market expectations by 71%. McCardle saddles up the roughie MY GLADIOLA. The filly's jockey Jamie Mott is also airborne riding at 21%, beating the market by 28% from his last 100 rides.
Here are the historical stats and trends to help you land the winner of the 2026 edition:
Favourites have not enjoyed the Black Caviar in recent times – only 2 of the past 12 winners have gone around as Favourites underlining the search for value in the market.
The poor record of the Favourites is compounded with a sizeable loss for the average punter – a $100 bet on the Favourite each year since 1996 would see the punter claim $2176 in a 30-year period – a loss of $824.
Last year’s winner SKYBIRD was a massive $26 outsider – the biggest winner in the race’s 71-year history. GYTRASH is the only other runner in the past 30 years to salute at big odds with a SP of $21 in 2020.
Despite those upsets, 15 of the last 22 winners have still come from the top of the market with winners’ SPs at $5 or less.
But adding to the intrigue – 6 of the past 9 winners have started at $7.50 or more, demonstrating the Black Caviar has flipped the script in the past decade.
Five of the last seven winners have jumped from the inside trio (barriers 1–3).
The pointy end of the field is the place to be with 5 of the last 6 winners in the top four at the 400m mark.
Mares have produced some fine results recently, accounting for 7 of the last 15 winners, including the past two editions.
Fresh is best – 15 of the last 16 winners were 1UP with 11 of those winners resuming after a break of 98 to 112 days.
Back again in 2026 – Saddlecloths To Watch Out For: 10 of the last 12 winners have worn Saddlecloths 1, 4 or 8
History: BLACK CAVIAR holds the record for the fastest Lightning Stakes thundering down the Straight in 55.42 seconds in 2013.
Here is TBF's latest product for our Works Burger.
It shows you exactly how every Group 1 on the Australian calendar has played out since 1991. Field size, position in run, stage of prep and all the usual details of every winner of every G1.
*note this is still a work in progress and will be embedded onto pages.
Here's a look at the Lightning;
Get Nic Ashman's insights into this weekend's racing in Melbourne and Sydney as well as across the country via the latest episode of our Saturday Bets! podcast below.
Nic Ashman's Tip: 4. TENTYRIS $2.50
"He took a run to find best form in the spring but that was off 200+ days. Much shorter break here and being a stallion they'll have him ready for this valuable contest fresh."
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