Saturday Bets! 2026 Blue Diamond Stakes

This Saturday sees 3 G1s take centre stage at Caulfield with the feature race being the Blue Diamond Stakes over 1200m under Set Weights where the young sprinters get their first opportunity to claim G1 glory.

First run at Caulfield in 1971, the 56th edition of Victoria's premier juvenile contest has long been a starting point for some Australia’s brightest 2YO Colts, Geldings and Fillies towards future G1s in the Autumn such as the Golden Slipper or other G1s later in the Spring as a 3YO.  Famous winners include: SEPOY (2011), BEL ESPRIT (2002) and MANIKATO (1978).

NIC ASHMAN SPEED MAP

"Might seem like a big (possibly dumb) call to suggest they won't lead on BIG SKY. His early speed data is well below some rivals, which means he's led in moderately run races. If they push and lead he could come undone. Plus if they let I AM ARIA cross to the fence, he will get a lovely 1/1 trail."

Trainer/Jockey Chat

Thomas Stockdale heads into the Blue Diamond as the in-form Jockey riding with exceptional confidence and precision. He has been outperforming market expectations by an impressive 18% across his last 100 rides, sitting a full 10% above his career strike rate - clear evidence that he’s hitting peak form at exactly the right time. He'll ride the contender on the third line of betting UNIT FIVE.

The real person in-form however is the Leading Trainer, Lloyd Kennewell, who is absolutely flying. Kennewell has exceeded market expectations by a remarkable 51% with his last 100 runners and is operating 52% above his career strike rate, showcasing a stable in rare and dominant form. He takes ETERNAL WARRIOR to the Blue Diamond after an impressive third in the Prelude. Is $20 overs?

Here are the historical stats and trends to help you land the winner of the 2026 edition:

• The market has not been a reliable guide in recent years — not since WRITTEN BY in 2018 has a Favourite won the Blue Diamond. 7 years of upsets – 7 good years for the Bookies.

  
  

• Historically, Favourites simply have not delivered monetarily. With only 8 successful Favourites since 1996, the average punter staking $100 on the Favourite each year would be staring at a loss of roughly $795 from a $3000 outlay – not profitable.

  
  

• The Blue Diamond has become a playground for value seekers. The last 6 winners have had SPs ranging between $9.50 and $26 reinforcing the trend that runners at double-figure odds are not just competitive – they’re winning.

  
  

• Barrier position has played a decisive role with 9 of the past 11 winners jumping from the Barriers 4 – 11. Last year, DEVIL NIGHT defied the pattern from Gate 2, becoming the first horse to win from an inside draw since MIRACLES OF LIFE in 2013 highlighting just how strong the middle-gate bias has been.

  
  

• Early race position hasn’t been crucial to success. 6 of the past 9 winners found themselves between 7th and 13th at the 400m mark before swooping upon on-pace contenders.

  
  

• Need to be in good, good form. 17 of the last 19 winners finished in the quinella at their previous start showing that contenders peaking at the right time – and already proven against quality opposition in quality lead-ups – hold a significant edge.

  
  

• The Blue Diamond Prelude has been the dominant pathway. 10 of the last 12 winners of the Blue Diamond contested the Prelude as their lead-up run, and remarkably, 9 of those winners placed in the Prelude — a clear pointer to the importance of proven Group-level performance in the build-up.

  
  

• The Fillies arrive in peak condition – the last 8 Filly winners of the Blue Diamond all entered off a lead-up victory.

  
  

• Achieving the Prelude–Diamond double is rare and reserved for elite horses. WRITTEN BY in 2018 was the last Colt/Gelding to complete the feat, while HAYASUGI in 2024 became the most recent Filly to stamp her dominance across both races.

  
  

• For those looking to play Saddlecloth numbers – Number 9 has not produced a Blue Diamond winner in the past 30 years.

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Here's a look at the Blue Diamond:

(the Futurity and the Oakleigh can be found further down in the article)

Get Nic Ashman's insights into this weekend's racing in Melbourne and Sydney as well as across the country via the latest episode of our Saturday Bets! podcast below.

To maximise your chances based on historical data, look for a runner who:

• Is not the Favourite - and is value

• Jumping from a middle alley

• Finished in the quinella in their last run

• Something from the Prelude would be nice

Andy’s Tip: 3. CLOSER TO FREE

With the Favourites not enjoying much luck in recent years, happy to follow the stats and see if the trend continues. Thinking the tremendous success of winners coming into the Blue Diamond after finishing in the quinella last start cant be ignored - so add a middle gate start and a Prelude performance and we land on CLOSER TO FREE. A win in the Prelude has seen the Colt's SP shaved down to $8 which is still good value. Michael Dee won last year on Devil Night and will look to become the first Jockey since 215 to win the Blue Diamond back to back.

Nic Ashman's Tip: 9. ZAMBALES

Blinkers on first time and he's a big, raw colt that should appreciate that plus the 7-day back-up and a fast tempo.

More Tips inc METRO TRACK REPORTS

Also taking place this Saturday at Caulfield are two more G1s – the Futurity Stakes and the Oakleigh Plate. Below are some historical stats and trends to consider when trying to land a winner:

FUTURITY STAKES

1400m – Group 1 – Weight For Age

• 13 out of the last 16 winners have been Favourites with SPs ranging from $1.45 to $4.80.

• 13 Favourites who have won since 2010 have jumped from Barriers 4 to 10.

• 4 of the last 5 winners were 2UP

• 7 winners in the past decade have been Males

• The last 3 winners have been 6YOs or older.

OAKLEIGH PLATE

1100m – Group 1 – Handicap

• Only 2 of the last 12 winners have been Favourites

• In the past 12 editions, 7 winners have jumped from Barriers 10 – 15 while 5 winners have jumped from Barriers 2 – 5.

• 9 of the 15 winners have been 1UP

• The last 8 winners have carried 54.5kg or less. Of those 8 winners, 7 were either a 4YOs or 5YOs.

• No Jockey has won the Oakleigh Plate twice in the last 20 years.

If you want the latest Track Reports and key intel ahead of raceday then check out our product suite and see what our members get.