Saturday Bets! 2026 Coolmore Classic

The curtain rises on the 2026 Sydney Autumn Carnival this Saturday at Rosehill Gardens headlined by the G1 Coolmore Classic where the Fillies and Mares clash over 1500m under Handicap conditions.

Commencing in 1973, the $1 million showpiece holds a unique distinction as the first-ever G1 event dedicated to Fillies and Mares. It remains the ultimate litmus test for elite female gallopers, serving as a critical bridge between the Queen Of The Turf later in the Autumn and the Empire

Rose later in the Spring. The Coolmore’s honour roll features powerhouses – such as the legendary EMANCIPATION [1984], dual-winner SUNLINE (2000/02) and gritty ASSERTIVE LASS [1997].

NIC ASHMAN SPEED MAP

"SAVVY HALLIE crosses and leads with MANAAL on her back. Suspect CINSAULT parks OSL. If they push forward on OLE DANCER they risk being wide no cover. But if they go back, the pace could drop mid-race and make it tough for the Victorian. Run of the race for mine is SHOHISHA and she might keep LAZZURA wide if she can muster early."

Trainer/Jockey Chat

Ms Winona Costin has recently been in a rich vein of form with her last 100 rides exceeding market expectations by an impressive 50%, confirming that her performances are not only consistent but also regularly outperform what the betting market predicts. However, while much of the attention has been on Costin, Tim Clark has been quietly producing excellent results of his own. Across his last 100 rides, Clark is running 46% above market expectations and operating 41% above his career strike rate, demonstrating a significant surge in form. Clark takes the ride on CINSAULT bringing that strong recent momentum into the race.

From a Trainers perspective, Kris Lees is also performing well above typical benchmarks. Over his last 100 runners, Lees has exceeded market expectations by 21% and is operating 23% above his career strike rate, suggesting the stable is in a particularly productive phase.

Here are the historical stats and trends to help you land the winner of the 2026 edition:

• Over the past 31 years, Favourites have struggled to dominate, with only 7 winners starting first past the post – a strike rate of 22%.

• So if our resident punter Average Joe placed $100 on the Favourite every year since 1996, he would have invested $3,000 but only returned $2,410 – resulting in a $590 loss overall.

  
  

• Despite Favourites' long-term struggles, the last two editions have been won by the market leader [ZOUGOTCHA in 2024 and LADY SHENANDOAH in 2025], with the previous Favourite winner being ALOHA in 2011.

  
  

• Since 2012, the race has proven friendly to longer-priced runners, with 11 winners starting at $8 or more. Digging deeper, 9 of those winners in the same period have gone around at $11 or longer, highlighting the race’s upset potential.

  
  

• Closer to the rail the better - 16 of the last 20 winners have jumped between Barriers 1 - 9. More specifically, 6 of the last 7 winners have come from Barriers 1 - 6.

  
  

• Last year’s winner LADY SHENANDOAH broke the pattern, becoming the first horse to win from a double-digit barrier [11] since Daysee Doom in 2018.

  
  

• Race pattern has also been important, with 7 of the past 11 winners settling in a midfield position at the 800m mark.

  
  

• Age trends are strong as well, with 7 winners in the past decade either 4YOs or 5YOs. Last year’s winner LADY SHENANDOAH also bucked another trend, becoming the first 3YO to win since TYPHOON TRACY in 2009.

  
  

• Weight statistics show that 16 of the past 31 winners carried between 54kg and 57kg. More recently, 8 of the last 9 winners have carried between 54.5kg and 57kg, suggesting this range is the sweet spot.

  
  

• That said, lighter weights can still win, but find it harder with 6 of the last 16 winners carrying 54kg or less.

  
  

• In terms of lead-up races, 8 of the past 11 winners came through either the Guy Walter Stakes or the Millie Fox Stakes. Interestingly though, 3 of the last 4 winners did not come through those traditional lead-ups, suggesting the pattern may be shifting.

  
  

• Hot form heading into the Coolmore has been crucial, with 7 of the last 8 winners finishing in the quinella at their previous start.

  
  

• The Coolmore has also favoured race-fit Fillies and Mares, with 6 of the past 9 winners 3UP in their prep.

  
  

• Trainer Chris Waller is chasing 4 consecutive wins, while jockey James McDonald is aiming for 3 in a row.

  
  

• One final quirk: Saddlecloth Number 9 has not produced a winner in the past 31 years, making it one of the race’s longest-running statistical droughts.

SATURDAY BETS PODCAST BACK NEXT WEEK!

To maximise your chances based on historical data, look for a runner who:

• Starting at $8 or more

• Jumping between Barriers 1 - 6

• Somewhere in that 54kg - 57kg sweet spot

• A quinella finish in their lead-up

Andy's Tip: 8. CINSAULT $8

Well this 4YO fits the historical profile - up in value [$8] and jumping from the middle of the track {5}, this 55kg Mare is in fine form at the moment winning 4 of her last [including her last 3 in a row] and will settle in a midfield position. She is 6UP, however, she is also coming off a win against the favourite LAZZURA last start in G2 Millie Fox and with Tim Clark in the saddle, she is definitely in contention.

Nic Ashman's Tip: 12.SHOHISHA

Drops nicely in weight off a solid first-up run. Second-up ratings are pretty good despite being in lower grade races than this. Maps well and looks a nice blowout.

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