Saturday Bets! 2026 The Tancred Stakes

The Sydney Autumn Carnival rolls on this Saturday with the attention continuing at Rosehill Gardens for two more G1s – one the H E Tancred Stakes – a $1.5 million G1 WFA contest over 2400m.

First run in 1963, the Tancred Stakes began as a Handicap before transitioning to WFA in 1977, establishing itself as Australia’s only open 2400m G1 WFA race. Its unique status has made it a key stepping stone for stayers targeting the Sydney Cup later in the Autumn Carnival, drawing some of the finest middle-distance talent the nation has ever produced. Over the decades, the race has been graced by legends of the turf, including: KINGSTON TOWN [1980], MIGHT AND POWER [1998], VERRY ELLEEGANT [2020] as well as back-to-back winners TIE THE KNOT [1999/2000] and OCTOGONAL [1996/97].

NIC ASHMAN SPEED MAP

Trainer/Jockey Chat

Heading into the Tancred Stakes, the battle for Jockey supremacy is shaping up to be as compelling as the race itself, with Sam Clipperton firmly in the spotlight after a remarkable run of form that has seen him exceed market expectations by 34% across his last 100 rides and an impressive 36% above his already established career strike rate. Close behind, Tim Clark continues the momentum we highlighted last week, maintaining a strong edge at 24% above market expectations over his past century of rides, reinforcing his reputation as a consistently underrated performer. And, as ever, no major race narrative is complete without J-Mac who quietly but reliably remains 17% above market expectations, a testament to his elite-level consistency on the biggest stages.

On the Training front, it’s almost inevitable that Chris Waller dominates the conversation fielding an extraordinary 6 runners in a compact 9 horse race. Waller’s recent form backs up the dominance, operating 6% above market expectations in his last 100 runners and sitting 9% ahead of his career strike rate. Yet looming as a genuine disruptor is his long-time rival William Haggas, whose partnership with Tom Marquand is firing at an exceptional level—together, they’ve exceeded market expectations by a staggering 80% in their last 100 rides, making them a formidable force capable of upending even Waller’s numerical advantage.

SATURDAY QUADDIE

Here are the historical stats and trends to help you land the winner of the 2026 edition:

• Favourites have strong long-term return with the top of the market winning 6 of the past 10 editions, but they’ve surprisingly gone 0 from the last 3.

  
  

• Speaking to Average Joe, he's still done well betting Favourites – backing the Favourite each year since 1996 would leave Joe up $862 in profit from his $100 annual stake, showing long-term value.

  
  

• And the market strongly favours the top chances – 12 of the past 14 winners had SPs of $5.50 or shorter leaving the outsiders as – outsiders.

  
  

• Barrier draw is crucial – since 1995, 48% of winners have jumped from Barriers 1–4, highlighting the advantage of an inside draw. This trend remains relevant, with 3 of the last 5 winners coming from these gates.

  
  

• Midfield runners dominate racing pattern – 9 of the last 11 winners were positioned 4th to 7th at the 800m mark, suggesting the ideal run is settling midfield, tracking the leaders, then swooping.

  
  

• Different contemporary trends in lead-ups – traditionally, key lead-ups were the Ranvet Stakes and Australian Cup. However, with the Australian Cup now on the same day as the Tancred and the 2026 Ranvet producing only one back-up in AELIANA, the pathway has become obsolete in the short term.

  
  

• Different paths for different winners – the last 5 winners have all taken different lead-up routes – DUBAI HONOUR [2025] 1UP, KALAPOUR [2024] Sky High Stakes, ARAPAHO [2023] Canberra Cup, DUAIS [2022] Australian Cup, SIR DRAGONET [2021] Ranvet Stakes.

  
  

• Distance fitness – among winners not 1UP, the last 16 had all raced over 2000m in their previous start.

  
  

• Strong recent form – 11 of the last 13 winners who were not 1UP finished in the top two at their previous start.

  
  

• 1UP wins rare – only one horse has won the Tancred 1UP in the past 30 years - thats DUBAI HONOUR in 2025. Guess who is trying to do it two years in a row?

  
  

• Prep depth did matter – usually – since 1991, 86% of winners were 4UP or more in their prep. However, this trend has softened recently, with the last two winners being 3UP or fewer in their prep.

  
  

• Weight favours the top handicap – 6 of the last 8 winners carried 59kg, suggesting higher-weighted, higher-quality runners often prevail.

  
  

• Shifting pattern of ages – traditionally dominated by 4YOs and 5YOs with 8 of the last 12 winners, but notably, the last 3 winners have been aged 6YOs or older, indicating a shift toward more seasoned stayers.

  
  

• Mares have a poor historical record – only 11 Mares have won since 1963, with Duais (2022) the most recent.

  
  

• Saddlecloth 3 has not produced a winner in over 30 years.

Get Nic Ashman's insights into this weekend's racing at Rosehill as well as across the country via the latest episode of our Saturday Bets! podcast below.

To maximise your chances based on historical data, look for a runner who:

• Something short in the market

• Settling in a midfield position

Andy's Tip: 1. DUBAI HONOUR $3.60

With a small field, it's tricky trying to identify a clear historical pattern. The two main contenders in the race are AELIANA and DUBAI HONOUR. Both are below that SP of $5.50, and both have undesirable and unsuccessful wide barriers – so how do we build a case for them? AELIANA settled in a nice 4th position in the Ranvet and raced over 2000m last start – but the lightweight runners haven't been successful recently, and historically the Mares have a poor record. DUBAI HONOUR proved last year he can win 1UP, he settled in 6th position in the Tancred last year, he carries the ideal winner’s weight, and is aging well like previous winners – at the price, I think that’s where we lean ever so slightly…

Nic Ashman's Tip: 7. RIVER OF STARS $23 and take her to run Top 4 at $2.25

Set to peak here third-up and out to a trip where she tested HALF YOURS in last year's Caulfield Cup. Should roll forward and get an uncontested lead.

More Tips inc METRO TRACK REPORTS

Also taking place this Saturday are two more G1s – the Vinery Stud Stakes and the Australian Cup. Below are some historical stats and trends to consider when trying to land a winner:

VINERY STUD STAKES

2000m – Group 1 – 3YO Fillies: Set Weights

• 16 Favourites have won since 1995 - including 4 in the past 7 years.

• 6 of the last 7 winners have had a SP of $6 or less.

• 8 winners in the past decade jumped between Barriers 1 – 5.

• 7 winners in the past decade won at their last start.

• Saddlecloth 1 has won 16 times in 31 years – including the last 3 in a row.

AUSTRALIAN CUP

2000m – Group 1 – Weight For Age

• Favourites have won only 3 times in the past 16 years. Since 1995, they have claimed just 6 victories.

• 12 of the last 16 winners had a SP of $9 or less.

• 5 of the last 6 winners won from Barriers 8 or wider.

• No horse has won from Barrier 1 or 3 in over 30 years.

• The last 3 winners came out of the All-Star Mile.

• 5 of the last 6 winners placed at their last start.

• Only 5 Mares have won in the last 36 years.

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