2026 TURNBULL STAKES: Preview & Tips

Andy G

16 hours ago

5 min read

https://video.wixstatic.com/video/96c862_5f2a06c1e87f473faa711d344aae5d4c/1080p/mp4/file.mp4

2026 TURNBULL STAKES DETAILS

DATE: Saturday October 3

VENUE: Flemington

DISTANCE: 2000m

CONDITIONS: Set Weights & Penalties

PRIZE MONEY: $750,000

The road to Spring glory runs straight through Flemington, where the 161st running of the Turnbull Stakes over 2000m once again shapes as a defining test for the country's elite stayers.

The Turnbull Stakes dates back to 1865 when THE SIGN won the inaugural running. Known by several names before being renamed in honour of a former VRC Chairman in 1948, the race has been contested over distances ranging from one mile to two miles before settling at 2000m in 1971. It has risen through the ranks to become one of Australia's premier G1 contests since 2006.

The Turnbull Stakes honour roll is filled with champions, including back-to-back winner WINX (2017, 2018), along with Australian racing greats MAKYBE DIVA (2005), SUNLINE (2001), NORTHERLY (2002), DORIEMUS (1996) and LET'S ELOPE (1991).

In the past 25 years, the Turnbull Stakes has produced 9 Melbourne Cup winners, 9 Caulfield Cup winners and 8 Cox Plate winners.

PAST WINNERS & TRENDS SINCE 1991

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R8 TAB TURNBULL STAKES - 2000M

1 44x6 HALF YOURS (14) 59kg $19

2 31x4 SIR DELIUS (GB) (9) 59kg $3.40

3 5x48 LIGHT INFANTRY MAN (FR) (3) 58kg $34

4 1132 COSMIC CRUSADER (NZ) (4) 58kg $4.80

5 1x02 AELIANA (NZ) (2) 57kg $3.50

6 1x53 ASTERIX (NZ) (11) 56.5kg $101

7 3x41 ZAHRANN (IRE) (1) 56.5kg $16

8 1x09 OHOPE WINS (NZ) (5) 56kg $101

9 1x87 MIDDLE EARTH (GB) (6) 56kg $41

10 x683 SOUL OF SPAIN (IRE) (15) 56kg $101

11 5x55 BUCKAROO (GB) (8) 55kg $17

12 55x5 SHE'S A HUSTLER (NZ) (7) 55kg $16

13 4112 SAINT GEORGE (GB) (13) 55kg $15

14 5x38 DEAKIN (FR) (12) 55kg $101

15 x087 KINGS VALLEY (IRE) (10) 55kg $151

NIC ASHMAN'S ANALYSIS

"No natural leader. Perhasp LIGHT INFANTRY MAN rolls to the top, SHE'S A HUSTLER could but is she fit enough? SIR DELIUS probably has to settle first six to win otherwise the slow tempo means he's relying on dash to win and that's not his forte. If someone said AELIANA will settle first 6, she's probably the one given her wet data but with a Cox Plate in three weeks both those horses could let it unfold. SAINT GEORGE is fit, relishes 2000m at Flemington and has run time this circuit carrying weight. here, he gets weight off the big guns and that gives him a chance."

NIC'S $100 PLAY

$50EW SAINT GEORGE $14

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WHO'S HOT? — TRAINER/JOCKEY CHAT

Ben Melham has been one of the form Jockeys of the Spring, and his booking aboard ASTERIX adds further intrigue to the Turnbull Stakes. While Melham typically performs around 9% above market expectations, he has elevated that figure to an outstanding 35% across his last 100 rides. ASTERIX is trained by Andrea Leek, whose stable is also operating at a remarkable level. Leek generally exceeds market expectations by 23%, but over her last 100 runners that figure has surged to 40%, highlighting the exceptional form of the yard. With both horseman and trainer in such strong touch, ASTERIX could prove one of the more interesting longshot propositions in the field and may not be the $81 chance he currently appears on paper.

Another combination worthy of respect is Mark Zahra and Ciaron Maher. Zahra has long been one of Australia's premier big-race riders, typically outperforming market expectations by 6%, and he is currently striking at an even more impressive 30% above market expectations across his last 100 rides. He partners MIDDLE EARTH, one of several runners Maher will saddle up in the race. Maher's stable traditionally operates around 2% above market expectations, but has been flying recently, outperforming the market by 31% from its last 100 runners. Alongside MIDDLE EARTH, the powerful stable is also represented by SAINT GEORGE, ZAHRANN, LIGHT INFANTRY MAN and KINGS VALLEY, giving Maher a formidable hand in his quest for another major Spring feature.

TRACK REPORT + BEST BET

TURNBULL STAKES TRENDS, STATISTICS + FAVOURITES RECORD

Favourites boast an impressive record in the Turnbull Stakes, accounting for 13 winners since 1991. However, punters have had little joy in recent years, with VERRY ELLEEGANT the last Favourite to win in 2020. Even so, a $100 bet on the Favourite every year since 1991 would have returned exactly $3,500 from a $3,500 investment, highlighting just how difficult it has been for Favourites to generate a long-term profit despite winning 13 editions.

While Favourites have enjoyed success, the Turnbull is far from predictable. Of the 22 winners since 1991 that did not start Favourite, 9 saluted at odds between $9 and $26, including 6 at lucrative prices ranging from $14 to $26. Barrier trends have also shifted dramatically. The last 3 winners emerged from wide draws of 14, 12 and 16, whereas before that MAKYBE DIVA in 2005 was the last horse to overcome a double-digit gate.

Traditionally, middle draws have been the place to be, with 12 of the 16 winners from 2022 and earlier jumping from Barriers 5 to 9. Racing pattern also plays a key role, with 22 of the past 35 winners settling within the top 8 of the field at the 800m mark, including 5 of the last 7.

Mares have excelled in the race, winning 11 times since 1991, including 4 of the last 9 editions. Age trends are evolving too - while 4YO and 6YO combined for 25 wins over the past 35 years, 6 of the last 8 winners have been either 5YO or 7YO. Weight has proven no obstacle, with 19 of the last 35 winners carrying 57kg or more, including 4 of the last 5. Recent form is another critical indicator. 11 winners since 1991 arrived off a last-start victory, including 7 of the last 11. The Underwood Stakes remains the premier lead-up, producing 10 winners, while 22 Turnbull winners raced at G1 level at their previous start and 15 winners came through a 1600m run.

WHAT HISTORY SAYS WINS

✓ Value runner

✓ Barriers 5 - 9

✓ Settle in the top half

✓ Coming in hot form

✓ Do not rule out Mares

✓ Do not rule out heavy contenders

2026 BEST FIT: 12. SHE'S A HUSTLER $16

SHE'S A HUSTLER appeals as one of the value plays of the Turnbull Stakes at around $16, capable of continuing the strong recent record of Mares in the race. Drawn ideally in Barrier 8, she should secure a position in the first half of the field and enjoy every favour over the Flemington 2000 metres. While she may not arrive with the booming form of some of her rivals, her profile suggests she is building towards a peak performance, and with form over the Distance and at the Track, SHE'S A HUSTLER looks a genuine knockout chance at attractive odds.

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