2026 MANIKATO STAKES: Preview & Tips

Andy G

16 hours ago

4 min read

2026 MANIKATO STAKES DETAILS

DATE: Sunday September 27

VENUE: Caulfield

DISTANCE: 1200m

CONDITIONS: G1 WFA

PRIZE MONEY: $2 million

A famous sprint has a different stage, but the stakes remain the same as the 59th Manikato Stakes brings together some of the country’s best sprinters over 1200m at Caulfield.

The Manikato Stakes has been run over 1200m since its inaugural running in 1968, won by WINFREUX. Originally the Freeway Stakes, it became a G1 in 1990 and was renamed in 1984 after champion sprinter MANIKATO, who fittingly won the race himself in 1982.

Some of the greatest sprinters of the modern era have captured the Manikato, including IMPERATRIZ (2023), BELLA NIPOTINA (2022), CHAUTAUQUA (2015), SEPOY (2011), HAY LIST (2010) and SUNLINE (2000).

For the first time in its history, the Manikato leaves its traditional home at Moonee Valley, with the track’s redevelopment seeing the 59th edition staged at Caulfield in 2026.

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R8 LADBROKES MANIKATO STAKES - 1200M

1 20x0 GIGA KICK Mark Zahra (4) $10

2 357x PERICLES Craig Williams (10) $23

3 42x9 JIMMYSSTAR Ethan Brown (8) $8.50

4 70x8 ROTHFIRE Brad Rawiller (6) $34

5 61x1 BEIWACHT Nash Rawiller (3) $3.60

6 132x GALLANT SON Luke Nolen (13) $46

7 50x3 BEADMAN Tim Clark (12) $18

8 30x2 NAPOLEONIC Zac Lloyd (7) $14

9 1x15 OLIVEANOTHERDAY Harry Coffey (5) $5

10 x43x CHARM STONE Damian Lane (11) $19

11 47x1 MY GLADIOLA Jamie Mott (9) $10

12 21x5 GEEGEES MISTRUTH Blake Shinn (1) $31

13 22x4 EXTRAGALACTIC James McDonald (2) $9.50

NIC ASHMAN'S SPEED MAP & ANALYSIS

"BEIWACHT will need to go a lot quicker to lead this field than he did in the Memsie. ROTHFIRE probably crosses him and GALLANT SON will charge across - that's your lead pack. Don't think there's much between a few at the top here. Map could prove the key and I love the run NAPOLEONIC gets. He should park midfield with cover possibly following PERICLES/BEADMAN. His trials have been electric. On his back will be JIMMYSSTAR - a proper G1 WFA horse who tackled 1400m fresh and didn't fire. Better suited here."

NIC'S $100 PLAY

$30ew NAPOLEONIC $13

$20ew JIMMYSSTAR $8.50

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WHO'S HOT? — TRAINER/JOCKEY CHAT

The strongest market-performance angles in this race belong to the connections of NAPOLEONIC and Favourite BEIWACHT. Nash Rawiller has long been one of the premier riders in the country, typically outperforming market expectations by 10%, but his recent form has been exceptional, exceeding expectations by a remarkable 27% across his last 100 rides. He partners race favourite BEIWACHT, adding further confidence to an already well-fancied runner. Meanwhile, Zac Lloyd is also enjoying a purple patch, improving on his usual 5% market-performance edge to an impressive 22% over his last 100 rides, and he takes the reins aboard NAPOLEONIC.

From the training ranks, NAPOLEONIC is particularly well served. The stable of John O'Shea and Tom Charlton has been operating at an outstanding level, surpassing market expectations by 31% from their last 100 runners compared to their already strong long-term figure of 10%. Tom Dabernig is another trainer in red-hot form, with his runners exceeding market expectations by 22% from their last 100 starts, well above his historical average of 9%. He has the second favourite OLIVEANOTHERDAY.

TRACK REPORT + BEST BET

PAST WINNERS & TRENDS SINCE 1991

MANIKATO STAKES TRENDS, STATISTICS + FAVOURITES RECORD

The Manikato Stakes has certainly not been a race where punters can blindly follow the market. Favourites have won 12 times since 1991, and just twice in the past 10 years. A $100 bet on the Favourite every year since 1991 would have returned just $3,413, an $87 loss overall. Outsiders have increasingly made their presence felt, with 5 of the last 8 winners who were not favourite started at double-figure odds between $10 and $61, including CHARM STONE at $31 and SOUTHPORT TYCOON at $21 in the past two editions.

Barrier position has been a major historical pointer, with the last 7 winners jumping from Gates 1 to 5. BUFFERING in 2013 was the last winner from a double-digit gate (10). Similarly, 8 of the past 10 winners were positioned in the first four at the 400m, suggesting the traditional Moonee Valley circuit strongly favoured horses racing close to the speed with an inside draw. With the race moving to Caulfield, those trends face a fascinating test.

Lead-up paths have varied, although the Moir Stakes has produced 4 winners since 2013, including 2 of the past 4. CHARM STONE also became the first first-up winner since SEA SIREN in 2012, while 6 of the last 9 winners who were not 1UP had failed to place at their previous start.

Mares are increasingly prominent, with 5YO Mares winning 3 of the past 4 editions. CIARON MAHER has trained 3 of the past 7 winners, while 8 of the past 10 victors have carried a two-word name.

WHAT HISTORY SAYS WINS

✓ Value runner

✓ Barrier 1 - 5

✓ On pace

✓ Mare

✓ 5YO

2026 BEST FIT: 12. GEEGEES MISTRUTH $31

For the first time in 59 editions, the Manikato presents punters with a completely different puzzle, and throwing decades of historical trends out the window. But the data is the data, so let’s follow it.

We’re searching for a double-figure chance drawn inside, preferably a 5YO Mare, and if she happens to have a two-word name, even better. Enter GEEGEES MISTRUTH. She ticks almost every historical box and even has Barrier 1 in her favour, with the only concern being her likely position back in the field. But after CHARM STONE and SOUTHPORT TYCOON defied the market at big odds in the past two editions, perhaps the Manikato is telling us something - dismiss GEEGEES MISTRUTH at your own peril.

QUADDIE HUNTER

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