Saturday Bets! 2025 C.F Orr Stakes
- Andy G
- Nov 12, 2025
- 4 min read
After a memorable Melbourne Cup Carnival, our attention moves across from Flemington to Caulfield this Saturday with the 102nd running of the CF Orr Stakes raced over 1400m under WFA conditions.
Commencing in 1925, the CF Orr is traditionally raced in February – and it was earlier this year, however, the MRC have made the move to transfer the race from the start of the Autumn program to after Cup Week to attract quality WFA horses and provide a greater finale to the Spring Carnival. Although the move looks set to appeal to a range of high-profile fancied contenders, the winner’s list of the CF Orr already carries some recent greats on its honour roll, including SAINTLY (1997), LONHRO (2004), BLACK CAVIAR (2012) and HARTNELL (2018).
NIC ASHMAN SPEED MAP
VINROCK probably crosses and leads but to do so he has to clear EVAPORATE drawn directly to his inside. The map surprise I think will come from JIMMYSTAR - most have him back but there's a great chance for him to grab the one/one with a decisive advantage over ANGEL CAPITAL - his main rival.
Trainer/Jockey Chat
Our Leading Jockey heading into the CF Orr is Carleen Hefel, who is on a hot streak at the moment. As it stands, Hefel is exceeding market expectations by a whopping 65% in her last 100 rides and is 59% above her career average. With a POT of 50.2% in her last 100 rides, it’s worth noting she is riding PINSTRIPED, who opened at $31 and is jumping from a favourable inside barrier.
Leading Trainers are the Archibalds with Annabel and Rob, surpassing market expectations by 62% in their last 100 runners, which is 57% above their career strike rate. They take BOSUSTOW and MIGHTY ULYSSES to the CF Orr. The combination of Ethan Brown and Ciaron Maher is another profitable connection, with the partnership exceeding market expectations by 19% in their last 100 rides together. JIMMYSSTAR has definitely benefited from the partnership.
Here are the historical stats and trends to help you land the winner of the 2025 edition:
Favourites have had a strong record in the CF Orr, winning 13 times since 1996 (43%). However, in recent years, their success has waned – only one Favourite has won in the last 8 editions.
While the Favourites have dominated significantly over the past 30 editions of the race, it has not resulted in a profitable return – a $100 bet on the Favourite each year since 1996 would total $3000, but the punter would have only received $2960 back – a loss of $40.
When looking at the SPs historically, it’s easy to understand why the Favourites have not really paid up – 11 of the 13 Favourites that have won the CF Orr had a SP of $2.90 or less.
However, in recent years, punters have found some value with the lack of success for Favourites – 6 of the last 8 winners who were not Favourites had SPs ranging from $6 to $21.
Since 1996, most winners have jumped from an inside gate, but it’s hardly been influential – Barriers 1-4 (43%), Barriers 5-9 (36%) and Barriers 10-15 (20%). In recent years though, we have seen inside gates become favourable with the last 3 winners jumping from Barriers 3-4 which may prove favourable again with such a small field.
Although only having 7 runners in the CF Orr this Saturday, it is worth noting that an on-pace settling position has proven to be the key to success in recent times with 8 of the last 12 winners finding themselves in the top four positions at the 800m mark.
This race was dominated by the younger contenders 30 years ago – with winners between 1996-2004 either 3YOs or 4YOs, but the trend has changed:
15 of the last 20 winners (75%) have been 5YOs or older
8 of the last 10 winners (80%) have been 5YOs or order
4 of the last 5 winners (80%) have been either 5YOs or 6YOs
With the CF Orr traditionally taking place in February, there is no particular pattern or lead-up to the second edition in 2025 due to it being raced in November.
Having said that, it is worth noting that CF Orr winners all started their campaigns brightly – 15 of the last 17 winners that were not 1UP placed in their last start.
Get Nic Ashman's insights into this weekend's racing in Melbourne and Sydney via the latest episode of our Saturday Bets! podcast below.
To maximise your chances based on historical data, look for a runner who is:
Jumping from an inside gate
5YO or older
Andy’s Tip: 1. JIMMYSTAR $2
Our span of options is limited in the CF Orr this edition, so finding a pick on historical data proves tricky. Although, Favourites have not had the best time recently, they have done well over the past 30 years – and this edition’s Favourite is a deserved Favourite. JIMMYSSTAR gets the inside draw here which he used superbly at Rosehill last start. 4 wins from 5 starts at Caulfield as well as 3 wins and 3 seconds over the Distance. Ethan Brown back on board the 6YO – not sure if he will be even money when the red light flashes on Saturday.
Nic Ashman's Tip: 1. JIMMYSTAR $2
"He's the Top Dogg (with a double G) of the Aussie sprint ranks for now and he's super versatile. Sat on speed in the Everest then swooped from off pace in his latest win. Handles soft ground and coupled with that versatility, he's impossible to go past."
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