Saturday Bets! 2025 Champions Stakes

Our last G1 of the Melbourne Cup Carnival is the Champions Stakes raced over 2000m under WFA conditions with total prizemoney of $3 million.

Commencing in 1869, the Champions (formerly Mackinnon) Stakes was originally raced on Derby Day and was a good guide to the Melbourne Cup. However, in 2016, it was pushed back a week to the last day of the Carnival to attract runners, particularly Cox Plate runners, for one more tilt at a mile and a quarter G1. Steeped in history, the list of winners verifies the significance of the race with CARBINE (1890), PHAR LAP (1930/31), TULLOCH (1960), LET’S ELOPE (1991), SO YOU THINK (2010), and VIA SISTINA all winning the race in their respective years.

VIA SISTINA is looking for her 12th Group 1 victory and second Champions Stakes this Saturday as the Melbourne Cup Carnival comes to a close. She opened as the $1.50 Favourite.

Trainer/Jockey Chat

As Nic pointed out in the Saturday Bets! podcast, Celine Gaudray is in good form, and the stats don’t lie. Currently, she is exceeding market expectations by 52% in her last 100 rides, which is 43% above her career strike rate. Maybe POINT KING can cause a boilover at those odds.

Our in form Trainer is Mitchell Freedman who is loving life at the moment, surpassing market expectations by 36% at the moment with his last 100 runners. He will take ATTRITION to the Champions Stakes, who cannot be dismissed after his fourth-place finish in the Cox Plate.

STAKES DAY QUADDIE ANALYSIS

Here are the historical stats and trends to help you land the winner of the 2025 edition:

• The Favourites have a reasonable record in the Champions Stakes, securing 8 wins since 1995 (27%). Their record has improved in the past 5 years, producing 3 winners, including last year’s winner VIA SISTINA.

  
  

• So justifiably, backing Favourites has not been a lucrative investment – a $100 stake on the Favourites each year for the past 30 years would see the average punter down $1219.

  
  

• While the Favourites may not have taken advantage historically, punters have still found joy backing other short-priced contenders:

  
  

  • 19 out of the last 23 winners had an SP of $8.50 or less

  • 11 of those 19 winners had a SP between $6 to $8.50

  • 3 of the last 5 winners, however, had a SP of $2.45 or less

• Over the past 30 years, 16 winners (53%) have jumped from middle gates Barriers 5 – 9. This trend has only improved throughout the years, with Barriers 5 – 9 producing 9 winners in the past 15 years (60%) and 5 of the last 7 winners (71%).

  
  

• While the middle gates have dominated, the wider gates have not – there have been only 3 winners jump from double-digit gates since 1995 – the last was HAPPY TRAILS in 2014.

  
  

• A mixed bag in settling positions due to the winner’s race pattern – 6 winners in the past decade have found themselves in the top three at the 800m, while the other 4 winners found themselves between 7th and 9th at the 800m.

  
  

• Only 6 Mares have won the Champions Stakes in the past 30 years (20%). But – 4 of the last 6 winners have been Mares, demonstrating recent Mares have been up for the challenge.

  
  

• The experience of older horses has generally been a formula for success – 9 of the last 15 winners (60%) have been 6YO or older – including the last 4 winners.

  
  

• The natural path for Cox Plate runners is the Champions Stakes, with 17 winners in the past 30 years coming out of the Cox Plate in the same prep. In fact, 11 winners in the past 17 years ran in the Cox Plate prior, including 3 of the last 5 winners.

  
  

• With that being said, some don’t peak until they get to the Champions Stakes – 8 of the last 12 winners did not place in their last start.

  
  

• Furthermore, to put the two previous stats together – 14 of the 17 Champions Stakes winners that came out of the Cox Plate did not place in the Cox Plate.

  
  

• Only two contenders have done the Cox Plate/Champions Stakes double in the same prep in the past 30 years – SO YOU THINK (2010) and VIA SISTINA (2024).

  
  

• J-Mac has won 3 of the last 4 Champions Stakes.

Get Nic Ashman's insights into this weekend's racing in Melbourne and Sydney via the latest episode of our Saturday Bets! podcast below.

To maximise your chances based on historical data, look for a runner who is:

• Is not the Favourite

• Is jumping between Barriers 5 – 9

• Did not place in the Cox Plate

Andy’s Tip: 4. ATTRITION $16

Ok – Favourites have done well recently, but not historically. Plus, only twice in 30 years has the Cox Plate winner won the Champions Stakes in the same prep – so let’s take on VIA SISTINA at $1.50. A non-Favourite, jumping from Barrier 5 and came fourth in the Cox Plate – that would be ATTRITION at $16. It might be more of an each-way bet, but it’s worth a throw at the stumps at those odds.  

Nic Ashman's Tip: 11. BENAGIL $21

"Sticking solid with the Works Burger $51 Futures bet here. She'll get the wet conditions she relishes and might be suited on the back-up. Low confidence race with VIA SISTINA a clear standout on peak ratings but not sure she's at her best despite winning the Cox Plate."

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