Saturday Bets! 2025 Empire Rose Stakes
- Andy G
- 6 days ago
- 4 min read
The Girls get together on the track on Derby Day for the 41st edition of the G1 Empire Rose Stakes raced over 1600m for the Fillies & Mares under WFA conditions.
First run on Melbourne Cup Day in 1985, the Empire Rose has grown in stature throughout its time – becoming a G1 race in 2003 and now an important fixture on one of the biggest days of racing on the Australian calendar with prizemoney worth $1 million in total. Some of racing’s favourite Girls have won the Empire Rose with PRIDE OF JENNI (2023), MELODY BELLE (2019) and TYPHOON TRACY (2009) all taking out the race in their respective years.
NIC ASHMAN SPEED MAP
"PRIDE OF JENNI leads but the question is who takes the field up to her? Most likely LAZZURA. BENAGIL/IDLE FLYER get cover no matter how you dissect the map. Cover is often good when JENNI is in the race albeit you don't want to be too far off her."
Trainer/Jockey Chat
Tommy Berry is flying in the saddle heading into the Empire Rose, exceeding market expectations by 48% in his last 100 rides and is 47% above his career strike rate. He rides LAZZURA. Adam Hyeronimus is also in good form and surpassing market expectations by 35% in his last 100 rides. He saddles up FIRESTORM.
No surprise Mr Waller is the Form Trainer, exceeding market expectations by 27% with his last 100 runners. He takes FANGIRL, LEICA LUCY, LAZZURA and FIRESTORM to the Empire Rose.
The only Jockey/Trainer partnership that is positively surpassing market expectations is B.Melham/Price and Kent Jnr, who are 40% above market expectations in their last 100 rides together. They join forces on ON DISPLAY.
Here are the historical stats and trends to help you land the winner of the 2025 edition:
Favourites have won the Empire Rose 9 times in the past 30 years (30%) exhibiting a fair record. In recent years, Favourites have bettered the strike rate winning 3 times in the past 8 years with ATISHU winning as Favourite in 2024.
Extraordinarily, backing the Favourite each year for $100 since 1995 would see the average punter dead even! $3000 in total bets on the Favourite in the past 30 years would see a return of exactly $3000.
The Empire Rose has produced an abundance of value winners in the past 25 years with 14 winners at double-digit odds ranging from $10 - $41. 9 of those 14 winners had SPs of $16 or more.
This incredible trend has continued in recent years with 9 winners in the past 15 years winning at double-digit odds while 4 of the last winners had SPs of $16, $11, $13 and $31.
Historically, the wider gates have been the ideal starting position for many winners with 15 winners since 1995 (50%) jumping from Barrier 10 or wider. This stat is reinforced in recent years with 9 winners in the past 14 years (64%) jumping from Barrier 10 or wider and 3 of the last 6 winners jumping from Barrier 11 or wider.
Most winners have enjoyed the wind-up on their way to the line – 7 of the last 9 Mares who have won the Empire Rose have settled between 9th and 13th on their way to victory.
Remarkably, there have been 17 Fillies who have contested the Empire Rose in the past 40 editions and only 2 have won – and they were back to back – I AM A STAR (2016) into SHOALS (2017).
The older Girls have done well in the past few years – 6 of the last 10 Mares who have won the Empire Rose were aged 6YOs to 7YOs – including the last 3 winners.
No common lead-up – the last 6 winners all raced in different lead-up races before winning the Empire Rose.
And the red hot form has not necessarily been required either – 5 of the last 8 winners did not place in their previous run before the Empire Rose – including the last 3 winners.
Lucky Saddlecloth 1 has won 3 of the last 4 Empire Roses.
No Mare has won the Empire Rose twice.
Get Nic Ashman's insights into this weekend's racing in Melbourne and Sydney via the latest episode of our Saturday Bets! podcast below.
To maximise your chances based on historical data, look for a runner who is:
A double-digit contender
A double-digit barrier
A Mare who has not won before
Andy’s Tip: 7. LAZZURA $16
I’m liking the look of LAZZURA here – historically, she matches the above criteria with an OP of $16 and a wide gate in Barrier 11. She should settle off-pace like so many winners have in the past decade and is looking to win her first Empire Rose. 2 starts back she won at Flemington with a bit more weight – could be the value bet of the day.
Nic Ashman's Tip: 5. BENAGIL $23
"Ran some big numbers last prep indicating she could be up to this level. Resumed with a quiet run back in a 1400m race where leaders dominated. Flemington suits her style and C Williams sticks. She might be half a run of her peak but happy to play at the price given I'm against FANGIRL and PRIDE OF JENNI. Could also play IDLE FLYER, who is airborne and she produced the win of the day at Randwick on Oct 18."
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