Saturday Bets! 2026 All Aged Stakes
- Andy G
- Apr 15
- 5 min read
As the fields line up for this weekend’s final day of the Sydney Autumn Carnival, the historical whispers of All Aged Stakes reveal a compelling clue - 5 of the last 6 winners have won within the $6 to $12 range, making the market’s sweet spot impossible to ignore.
Steeped in history and prestige, the All Aged Stakes stands as one of Australia’s most enduring WFA contests, now celebrating its 162nd edition with a rich legacy dating all the way back to 1866 when Falcon claimed the inaugural running. Contested over 1400m for $1.5 million in prizemoney, the race before 2004 tested runners over the mile before a Carnival revamp saw it reduced to 1400m. Its historical significance extends beyond Australian shores too, having once lent its name to what is now the Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot. Through the decades, the honour roll has been graced by legends of the turf, including the mighty CARBINE (1889/1890), AJAX (1938/39/40), SUNLINE (2000/02), and EMANCIPATION (1984). With its blend of tradition and elite competition, the All Aged Stakes continues to capture the imagination as a race where champions cement their legacy.
NIC ASHMAN SPEED MAP
Trainer/Jockey Chat
In recent form, Jockey Sam Clipperton has been performing well above expectations, delivering results that significantly outpace market predictions - exceeding them by an impressive 52% across his last 100 rides, while also operating 54% above his overall career strike rate. His current booking aboard KOVALICA adds further intrigue, suggesting he could be a major factor to consider. Similarly, Jordan Childs has been quietly building momentum, surpassing market expectations by 43% over his past 100 rides, and his partnership with MAGIC TIME makes him another rider worth close attention.
On the Training front, the stable of Tony and Calvin McEvoy is also in outstanding form, outperforming market expectations by 16% across their last 100 runners and maintaining a strike rate that sits 18% above their long-term career average, underlining their consistent ability to have horses primed to deliver beyond what the market anticipates. They bring Melbourne Cup winner HALF YOURS to the All Aged Stakes 1UP.
Here are the historical stats and trends to help you land the winner of the 2026 edition:
Favourites losing their grip - while Favourites have won 12 editions since 1995, their dominance has faded sharply - only two have delivered in the past 12 years, with TRAPEZE ARTIST (2018) and GIGA KICK (2023) the rare recent exceptions.
A losing play for Average Joe - backing the Favourite every year since 1995 with a $100 stake would leave you with a return of $2,364 - a net loss of $536, underlining the risk of following the top pick blindly.
The value zone stands out - in the last 6 years, 5 winners had SPs ranging between $6 and $12, while 6 of the past 12 winners have saluted at $9 or longer reinforcing that the sweet spot lies just beyond the Favourites.
Barrier sweet spot dominates - since 1995, 18 winners have jumped from Barriers 5 to 9. That trend sharpens further with 12 of the last 15 and 8 of the past decade’s winners coming from this ideal range.
Barriers 6-7 lead the charge - these gates alone have produced 10 winners in the past 16 years, making them prime real estate on race day.
Inside draws struggling - Barriers 1 to 3 have yielded just two winners in the past 13 years, suggesting the rail hasn’t been kind to contenders.
Track conditions shape tactics - on rain-affected tracks, 5 of the last 7 winners settled off midfield, while the last 4 winners on Good tracks all raced on-pace or in midfield positions.
Key lead-up race - the TJ Smith Stakes continues to be a crucial form reference - 12 winners of the All Aged since 2005 ran in it two weeks prior, including 8 of the last 10. Notably, only TRAPEZE ARTIST in 2018 managed the double.
Last-start form not essential - only 3 of the last 11 winners placed in their previous run, proving you don’t need to be coming off a podium finish to win here.
Mares holding their own - since 2010, Fillies and Mares have claimed 6 victories, showing they more than match it with the Boys at WFA level.
But the Boys still hold the upper hand winning 7 of the last 9 All Aged Stakes.
To maximise your chances based on historical data, look for a runner who:
Is above the $6 mark
Jumping from the ideal 5-9 position
Coming out of the TJ
Andy's Tip: 1. GIGA KICK $7
A great run in the TJ missing out by half a length to impressive JOLIESTAR, the 6YO Gelding has done it before and gets the right historical set-up - an OP of $7 and gets the middle barrier in 7. 1/1 over Track/Distance and 2/3 4UP - he looks to become the first double winner since SUNLINE in 2002.
Nic Ashman's Tip: 14. BEIWACHT $7
"The last time he raced on a good track around a bend was the Golden Rose where he smashed the clock in one of the highest-rated 3YO races this season. It's also the last time he contested a 1400m race. If you want to play ANGEL CAPITAL, apply the 20/80 rule, where you have 20% of your wager on the win and 80% on the place. He should run top 3 and the barrier extension might work for him."
Also taking place this Saturday at Randwick is another G1 – the Champagne Stakes. Below are some historical stats and trends to consider when trying to land a winner:
CHAMPAGNE STAKES
1600m – Group 1 – 2YO: Set Weights
Favourites have won 15 times since 1995, including 5 of the past 11 years.
The last 15 winners have all started at $9 or less, with 9 of those at $4 or shorter.
Only 4 horses at double-digit odds have won since 1995, with the last occurring in 2010.
Barriers 5 to 8 have produced 18 winners since 1995, including 3 of the last 4.
Since 1995, 25 winners have come through the Sires, including 8 of the last 11.
The last 5 winners that came through the Sires all finished in the trifecta.
The last 2 winners did not come through the Sires.
Only 2 Fillies have won in the past decade.
Saddlecloths 1, 2 and 3 have produced 20 winners since 1995, including 8 in the last decade.
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