The Beaten Favourite ratings has identified two early bets for the $5million Cox Plate at The Valley on Saturday.
TBF Ratings are based on a horse's performance at a specific distance. Our rating is out of 100, where 1pt equals 1 length. The mark of 100 has only been achieved on four occasions since we started our database. Three by Winx and the other being Verry Elleegant's astonishing Melbourne Cup victory, which rated well beyond anything she had ever done.
In the coming months we'll have tables with TBF data on them both for previews and reviews but as we're in the infant stages of our site, you're stuck with some dribble.
RATINGS
ANAMOE finishing second behind State Of Rest in last year's Cox Plate earned him a TBF Rating of 93. He smashed the clock in a fast run Caulfield Guineas at his start prior posting a 97 (3YO) on a firm deck. His most recent win in the Might And Power Stakes rated 94, his best rating this prep and the first time he eclipsed his Cox Plate mark of 93. If there is a query with Anamoe, its a very wet track. TBF data shows his best figures are soft 5 or better.
ZAAKI is yet to eclipse the mark he set back in the winter of 2021, where he ran a peak of 94, a mark that would've won him last year's Cox Plate. What we know of Zaaki is he needs a fast tempo. In two of his three runs this prep, the lead speed has been well below average making it hard for him to run a number and hard for us to tell where he's at. His first-up win in the Tramway Hcp rated 93 and it was on the heavy so we feel he won't mind the rain despite some public opinion suggesting otherwise.
I'M THUNDERSTRUCK and ALLIGATOR BLOOD both ran career peaks in the Makybe Diva Stakes rating 94 each with the former again hitting that mark in the Might And Power when second to Anamoe. It's also worth noting I'm Thunderstruck's only run at The Valley saw him reel off the best last 400m of the meeting to beat subsequent G1 winner Tuvalu and in the process showing the punters he loves The Valley cambers. Big tick that.
We can understand why connections of GOLD TRIP elected to back-up. Their gelding posted a 92 on heavy ground in the Naturalism Stakes. The Caulfield Cup was barely a stern test leaving him fresh enough to come back in distance with a set of blinkers on for the first time. They'll be doing the rain dance into Cox Plate day.
Mo'Unga [92], Law Of Indicies [91], Young Werther [91], Maximal [90], Profondo [89] and Mr Brightside [89] round out the remaining chances that have raced in Australia leaving just the imported galloper El Bodgeon.
We have a method of transferring international ratings to ours and it puts El Bodgeon at his peak on 93 but like Gold Trip it's a wet rating and becomes more relevant if the rain falls.
PACE
Watching replays of Zaaki at his past two starts makes us think they will be desperate to hold the lead on him. Vision clearly shows he wants to lay in during the early part of the straight and on both those occasions he's had Alligator Blood underneath him. Take that horse away and Zaaki goes faster. Assuming we're right and Zaaki holds the lead from his inside gate this puts Alligator Blood outside lead and given the latter is suspect at a strong 2000m, it may allow Zaaki to dictate the pace. The fly in the ointment here is Profondo, who could force Alligator Blood to work harder to sit outside lead, which makes Zaaki run through that first section 2-3 lengths faster. We don't see that as a bad thing for Zaaki but we do for I'm Thunderstruck as the data suggests he loves a soft tempo and then a massive squeeze mid-race. Anamoe maps to settle in the second or third pair back with either Law Of Indicies or Young Werther underneath him. He has shown a tendency to wobble around the bend and we expect connections of Zaaki to expose this by making the Godolphin entire travel at his top for a long as possible.
TIPS
We don't see a lot of upside in taking the $2.10 about Anamoe on Tuesday afternoon. If we get a heavy track he is certain to drift.
If the track is dry we could be looking at a traditional leaderish Valley in which case the market has to come for Zaaki.
We also have Zaaki on top if the track is heavy based on his Tramway rating albeit over 1400m and he could be suspect at 2000m on a bog. We could get him as low as $4 if Anamoe gives up some of the market percentage. Either way there is an argument for Anamoe to drift a tad from $2.10 and possibly Zaaki to trim up from the current quote of $4.60.
If the track is heavy then Gold Trip's Naturalism third placing carrying 1kg over WFA comes into play as does El Bodegon's win over Melbourne Cup hope Hoo Ya Mal in July 2021 but the latter looks short enough at $7.
Early plays would be to snip the $21 for Gold Trip and back Zaaki at $4.60.
We'll touch base later in the week hopefully with an idea of what kind of track we can expect and whether we need to have another bet in the race.
Full Cox Plate day preview below!
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