Saturday Bets! 2025 VRC Oaks

Saturday Bets becomes Thursday Bets this week with Ladies Day taking centre stage at Flemington. The highlight, as always two days after the Cup, being the G1 VRC Oaks, raced over 2500m for the 3YO Fillies under Set Weights.

The Oaks is as old as the Melbourne Cup, with the first race taking place back in 1859. Originally raced over a mile and a half, it was extended to 2500m in 1973 before being elevated to G1 status in 1979. The Oaks has become a coveted race throughout its 166-year history that has been claimed by some of horse racing’s past legends, such as BRISEIS (1876), SWEET NELL (1903) and LIGHT FINGERS (1964) and modern-day greats, such as MISS FINLAND (2006), SAMANTHA MISS (2008) and JAMEKA (2015).

NIC ASHMAN'S SPEED MAP

Trainer/Jockey Chat

How good was Mark Zahra last Saturday? 4 winners in a row on Derby Day – one of them being GETTA GOOD FEELING. Zahra is surpassing market expectations by 35% in his last 100 rides with a POT of 10.9% in the same period. All is setting up very well for the 2025 Oaks Favourite.

Another man in red hot form is Trainer Ciaron Maher, who had 3 winners on Derby Day – including 2 G1s in the Derby and Empire Rose. Currently, Maher is exceeding market expectations by 32% with a POT of 20.9%. He takes two outside chances to the Oaks in ZOUCLAIRE and MORISU OJO – with Maher in this kind of form, they may not be outsiders for too long.

MELBOURNE CUP DAY QUADDIE ANALYSIS

Here are the historical stats and trends to help you land the winner of the 2025 edition:

• Favourites have a fantastic record in the Oaks, winning 14 times since 1995 (47%). In recent years, they have dominated the Oaks, winning the last 4 editions.

  
  

• So it's safe to say that the Favourites have generated a healthy profit for the average punter each year – backing the Favourite for $100 each year since 1995 would net the punter $665.

  
  

• This domination of Favourites and their rivals has not seen many horses of value get up – in fact:

• The last 8 winners all had a SP of $6 or less

• 18 of the last 22 winners had a SP of $5.50 or less

• 21 of the last 22 winners had a SP of $7.50 or less

• This is the definition of an anomaly – the only horse that did not win with a SP of $7.50 or less in the last 22 years did not even win at double-digit odds – it won at triple-digit odds – LASQUETI SPIRIT won the Oaks in 2016 with a SP of $101.

  
  

• Historically, the middle gates have produced the bulk of the winners with 15 winners since 1995 (50%), jumping from Barriers 5 – 9. This trend has continued in the past decade, with 5 winners jumping from Barriers 5 – 9.

  
  

• Only 6 winners have won from Barrier 10 or wider in the past 30 years (20%), however, 2 winners have come in the past 5 years – PERSONAL (2020) and TREASURETHE MOMENT (2024).

  
  

• Settling in the top half of the field has been a path to success with 8 of the last 10 winners finding themselves between 1st and 6th at the 800m.

  
  

• The big lead-up race has been the Wakeful Stakes on Derby Day, where 6 of the last 7 winners have raced in the Wakeful before going on to win the Oaks 5 days later.

  
  

• Further to the importance of the Wakeful, the 6 winners that came out of the Wakeful all finished in the quinella of the Wakeful. Take note.

  
  

• Wow – Saddlecloths 1 or 2 have won 20 Oaks in the past 30 years (67%) – including the last 7 winners in a row.

Get Nic Ashman's insights into last weekend's racing in Melbourne and Sydney plus a look ahead in Melbourne Cup Carnival Week via the latest episode of our The Monday Podcast below.

To maximise your chances based on historical data, look for a runner who is:

• Below that SP range of $7.50

• A leader or on-pace contender

• Raced (and placed) in the Wakeful

• Wearing 1 or 2

Andy’s Tip: 1. GETTA GOOD FEELING $1.70

The symmetry between the historical stats and how the market has opened reveals an identical conclusion for the Oaks – with the Wakeful Stakes proving to be such a dominant form line to follow heading into the Oaks, the tip here has to be GETTA GOOD FEELING. Won the Wakeful last Saturday with a SP of $1.60, she will wear Saddlecloth 1 and should find herself in the top half of the field. She gets the most in form jockey in Mark Zahra on board again – and there is no other rival below the $7.50 mark when markets opened. Is this a slam dunk? Or will we see one of the biggest boilovers in recent times in the 2025 Oaks?

Nic Ashman's Tip: 1. GETTA GOOD FEELING $1.70

Was desperate to find something to beat her because the races she comes through haven't rated that well. But the only lead-up that's caught the eye rating-wise is the Spring Champion and I'm not convinced THE PEARLS will run a strong 2500m given her last 200m at Randwick. The rest were possibly too far away. GETTA GOOD FEELING maps beautifully and her timing is right. If you want the latest Track Reports and key intel ahead of raceday then check out our product suite and see what our members get via the burger link below.